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Blog Forecast Will Return on Monday March 22,2010.. Please Use Forecast Links Throughout Site.

I am way from the Forecast desk for a couple of days on Personal Matters. The Blog will begin on Monday March 22,2010.


The Lucky Leprechaun Gives You A Fantastic St. Patrick's Day! Spring Begins Saturday March 20th at 1:32 PM..Another Round of Rain Later Sunday Into Monday May Again Cause Flooding Concerns!

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Before I get into the stretch of fine weather to come and what a needed break we will get!...I wanted to take a moment to say that overall the Storm performed as modeled but the destruction will cost billions when all is tallied up...To that end it is still unknown how much this storm will cost... on the overall taxed economy and budgets of the local municipal and state level. If we were just talking about NJ.. that would be more than enough...but unfortunately..the wealth of destruction has spread throughout the Northern and Central Mid Atlantic and it really goes to show you that the power of water is not anything to be taken lightly. Added to the all of February and the entire Winter...0f 2009-2010..the numbers are staggering to say the least and more so incomprehensible! If you think for one minute that the Spring will be any easy feat, I warned you to rethink that thought!

I an going to keep the links up for the river flooding as the ongoing gauges continue to provide needed information on the flooding situation throughout all of the major and minor stem rivers in NJ. Certainly just looking at the pictures..the videos and the actual maze it took to get around On Monday...it is a wonder that despite the stretch of promised fair weather to come this week.. First the 72 Hour Radar and Surface Station Precipitation overlay Ending 10PM Monday Night March 15,2010...What a picture!

the river levels that are now or have crested from major flooding in Nj will continue to recede slowly..For Example...Many of my readers here may know of the greatest Passaic River Flood at Pine brook which crested at 23.20 inches on October 10th,1903.. Not that you were here...but that is historical...In fact this same stem of the River crested at Major Flood Stage of 22.32 inches on April 18th, 2007....You must remember this..well if not you don't live there..or along that stretch of the River...but for those that do..Monday Night's crest of 22.15 inches has already taken it's toll!

As the Mighty Passaic flows down through Wayne and Little Falls NJ..Mjor Flood stage occurs at 9 Feet... And We have not even crested there yet....The same time frames of major flooding from above have occurred on this stretch of the river branch downstream from the above dates...This is pretty close to making these historical floods by all accounts...

I want to move ahead now with the upcoming weather! It is in a big way a return to above average temperatures and a stretch of some finer and dryer days ahead... Just in time prior to the Spring Equinox which occurs at 1:32 PM on Saturday March 20,2010...
Saturated Air finally breaks free with sunshine thisafternoon as our Nor'easter moves further offshore. The flow will still be from the NE but will back to the Northwest and decrease in speed as we get to St. Patrick's Day. Temperatures will respond also with readings getting back into the lower 50's today and then approach and surpass 60 Wednesday into the weekend. Convergence and Confluence will set up High pressure over the NE as the two jet streams separate . The polar brach will keep dry air locked in over the area with a downslope component to the air at the mid and low levels. This is a welcomed thing as generally fair weather will be with us through the weekend. There will be some cloudiness associated with several cold fronts that transverse the area on Thursday and Friday..reestablishing the NW upper wind flow..but no great concern for impacts to our weather ...

That will end as the milder air surges North on Sunday ..high Pressure will be offshore and winds will be from the SW. A storm system moving up the St. Lawrence River valley will send a surge of subtropical moisture northward on Sunday afternoon and evening. Precipitable Water Vapor Values show.75 inches of vapor water.. This is not the actual precipitation forecast folks. But gives you an idea that we are again looking for a cold front and a rather juicy one at that to move through the area and offshore Sunday night.This will be accompanied by showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms..
A period of strong SW Winds and heavy rain will accompany the front . This may again produce flooding concerns from an already exasperated storm that is still crippling the area with continued power outages and flood damage from slowly receding rivers. Dry weather but much chillier air will arrive after the passage of the front on Monday afternoon through Friday with a slow moderation. Temperatures

Another strong storm system will approach the forecast area by late Friday and could provide another round of rain with the onset beginning on the lighter side as warm air advection commences and increases cloud over the area next Thursday. The heaviest will occur next Friday night and next Saturday Morning and will again have caution flags for concerns of flooding and wind damage potential as we continue to wind down another active and forecasted month of above average weather extremes and way above average precipitation....

More tonight!

6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)
8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts
8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)



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