A Wind-Swept Torrent Of Rain Saturday and Saturday Night..Don't Forget To Turn The Clocks One Hour Ahead Before You Go To Sleep Saturday Night ( Details Below Graphics)

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Mid Atlantic River Forecast Center

Current Weather(Click On Images To Enlarge...Images Auto-Update on Site)

A wet weekend as advertised is still up for the entire Tri State area. Low pressure Over the Plains will combine with deepening and synoptic scale lift and strong omega with strong Atlantic and subtropical air seen on water vapor image to produce flooding rain concerns this weekend beginning on Friday and continuing into Sunday with lingering effects through Monday! Marine layer and flow will be impeding dryer warmed air over the last several days as cloudiness breaks and allows sunshine in through clouds thisafternoon.that will allow the temperatures to once again go above climo with highs basically in the mid and upper 50's.. could see a few 60 degree readings again if NAM MOS verifies. Though cloudiness will quickly increase as mid and low level inflow from ocean begins to increase. Light rain or drizzle may break out overnight but the steadier and heavier rain will begin on Friday seen as the blue over the SE USA on the water vapor..indicating rapidly cooling cloud tops and heavy precipitation to overspread the area. Rain will come in periods not all at once and precipitation intensity will likely be focused on the heaviest during Saturday late into Sunday Morning.

Warm frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary on Saturday to our South and will be a focus for very heavy bands of rain on strong low and mid level SE Jet that will increase the mix and high wind gust potential for bridges and overpasses and the steady and heavy rain of Saturday afternoon and evening will lead to widespread flooding..perhaps river flooding and coastal flooding and beach erosion due to the duration and strength of wave and wind action along the eastern and Southern Facing shorelines and Back Bays of NJ and NYC Waterways. Wind damage may also become quite apparent as soaked and loaded weak trees and power lines and other non secure structures fracture under the voracity of the onshore flow. Forecasted mid level winds approach 65-70 knots across the area Saturday evening with 10 meter winds 25-30 knots translating to surface winds of 20-30 mph with higher gusts possible especially if thunder becomes apparent.

Looking at the Convective parameters there is some indication of thunder but that will have to be analyzed in near real now-casts that would add to the qpf. Expecting between 2-4 inches of rain across the entire area through Sunday Night. I will have further analysis through the day!

The graphic above is the latest schematic from NOAA's Mid Atlantic River Forecast Center. This schematic is purely for the likelihood of River Flooding across the shaded areas...That is Most of NJ and all of Eastern PA and Delaware and MD... This is not a schematic for minor river flooding or flash flooding.. Those will be covered by the Local NWS offices respectfully...On with the show! i will have all the latest links for you to monitor the streams and rivers and hourly precipitation through the event this weekend at the top of the blog. I tooka quick look at the county level ..we are running over 100-140% above average rainfall for all NJ Counties.

The following is the Flash Flood Guidance of 1-3-6-and 12 Hour Rainfall over these areas to produce Small Stream Flooding... It is noted that these values do not represent urban..basement...or other flooding not associated with a stream! here... and for the 48 Hour Precipitation Forecast for all areas go here The image to your right is the current year to date precipitation and the above or below mean..

This graphic is the 48 hour total middle Atlantic river flood center precipitation forecast over the area. It will be refreshed on the site ..not in the emailed version of the blog. In fact all of the graphics will auto refresh to the latest on the site..and therefore it behooves you to go to the site!
The GFS Ensemble has been hitting the rainfall quite hard over the area on Saturday as well as the operational model that i will present to you in a few minutes further down the blog. The idea is to take the surface and upper low with a very tight pressure gradient over the Mid Atlantic slowly East and right over the tri State area. This has been the theme in the operational for sometime but the placement and wavering of the surface low and upper low's frontogenetic fields...vertical velocities placement has wavered back and forth with respect to defining the critical areas of heaviest rainfall...

None the less the consensus is the forecasted bullseye that I have been pointing to since last Friday... It is now quite clear that even the ensemble spreads are pointing to a flooding rain over the Tri State Area on Saturday through Sunday Morning!

6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge) 8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts 8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

Ides Of March Forecast Mayhem On Target..Further Thinking To A Flooding Weekend (Details Below Graphics)

*********************Morning Model Update***************************

Morning model guidance is coming in now and the NAM guidance is slower with the entire evolution of the storm and develops the heaviest rain over the region during Saturday Night.It has been noted by the HPC that this solution is on the western Edge of the model guidance ensemble blends and operational models. It has also been too warm and pressures too high with the initial upper low over New mexico...but has been trending in the direction of the other guidance. I will continue to monitor and have updates throughout today! Other then that the forecast package remains unchanged.

Cloudiness will be increasing over the next 24 hours as we get through a fifth day of above average temperatures and fair weather . High Pressure will slowly moving offshore as a large storm system over the Midwest heads slowly east bound. A warm front will be moving through the area on Thursday and will pass North of the metro area Thursday night. Winds will become more onshore and light rain or drizzle will develop across the area Thursday night. There may be some light rain Thursday afternoon as moisture continues to pool North from off the ocean.

The tightening pressure gradient between strong High pressure over Se Canada extending into the Atlantic and strong low pressure deepening across the Ohio Valley will set up an increasingly strong mid and low level jet that will infiltrate copious amounts of moisture from off the Atlantic inbound toward the NJ/NYC/ metro areas from Friday through Sunday Morning. As the strong east and SE winds increase low pressure at the surface will develop off the Carolina coast in response to the deepening and tightening of the pressure field.


This will lead to periods of very heavy rainfall in the order 0f 2-4 inches across the entire tri state area beginning on Friday with the heaviest rain occurring on Friday night through Saturday night. As mentioned over the past couple of blogs here, the nature of the approaching new spring tides ..the strong SE/East winds progged at over 60 knots at 850MB at times Saturday will lead to a strong onshore flow that will produce coastal flooding and beach erosion along the South and East facing shores and Bays over the NJ/NY.. Southern CT metro areas from Friday through Sunday.

Over the interior..heavy rain and persistent snow pack still remaining over NW NJ will allow for definite urban and street flooding as well as possible flooding of streams and rivers that will have to be nowcasted and monitored. By Saturday night and Early Sunday the Upper low and Surface low will become vertically stacked as the storm begins to occlude and slowly fill. This will lead to lingering showers on Sunday with the heaviest rains approaching southern New England ...

The storm will exit into the Atlantic but improvement will lag behind as NE Winds between the departing low and High pressure across the Mid West keep plenty of cloud cover around through late Monday. There may be a transition of light rain to light snow showers across the area as colder air works in between the departing storm and strong high pressure to the west. If snow showers were to occur on Monday , they will not accumulate as day time heating and low saturated warm ground would not allow.. Clouds will break on Tuesday with sunshine returning. temperatures will be above average in the 50's Wednesday and Thursday falling back into the 40's to near 50 as the rain begins Friday through Saturday.

Very Strong winds in excess of 30 mph at times with frequent gusts will accompany the heavy rain on Saturday. Due to the nature of this storm there is the potential for embedded thunderstorm as as well on Saturday. The strong winds and heavy rains will be capable of downing trees and power lines as utilities will be taxed by the wind and rain action. If your plans include travel on Saturday throughout the area be prepared for travel delays and the concerns of flooding and wind damage . Also higher bridges across the metro area will be subjected to high winds and large profile vehicles traveling the span of these bridges and overpasses will subject to rerouting and possible closures due to the weather. The rapid run off from the rain will cause flash flooding as well from higher terrain and this will also be a nowcasted forecast concern.


Look for watches warnings and advisories to be issued and be prepared to take action if warranted for or location.

6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts

8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

Beware The Ides Of March!!! A Wet Weekend Coming Up With Flooding Potential (Details below Graphics)

Beware The Ides Of March..Especially the Weather This Upcoming Weekend.!

I am a little short on time this Tuesday Morning...However cloudiness will increase on onshore flow later Wednesday. Precipitation in the form of light rain will be spotty later Wednesday. Cloudiness and seasonally cooler weather will be with us through the weekend and the model guidance continues to show rain developing across the area from warm front (waa) spreading over the area on Thursday. The main rain will be spreading across the area on Friday and the rain may become heavy at times Friday night and Saturday as low pressure deepens off the Mid Atlantic Coast. The rest of the forecast thoughts remain the same below.

I will be back this evening with a complete update. Enjoy another fine Tuesday. Though some cloudiness will advect in during thisafternoon. Above all 4 great Days in a row!

It was absolutely spectacular on Sunday across the NE USA. Newark NJ had 60 Degrees for a High temperature. Temperatures with plenty of sunshine this Monday Morning are already rising to levels seen over the weekend as out Tri-fecta of Spring Preview continues. Cloudiness will increase on Wednesday. Until then low pressure seen on the visible Image to your right will continue to remain over SE Canada..while High pressure continues to the West of the Forecast Area. This will continue a NW Flow ...


A series of weak troughs/a back door cold front seen on the Water Vapor Image Below will pass South of the area on Tuesday without much fanfare.

Snow depth is dwindling fast under these conditions of mild temperatures and sunshine. During the past 24 hours preceding 7AM on Monday snow depth beyond 10 inches was confined to a few areas in Sussex County. Again this is a good thing because as i have been pointing out in recent forecasts here from last Friday and Sunday , we are in for a big and wet change.. And if Sunday Night's and Monday's data continues to pour in.. Pour being the operative word, It will be a wet get go later this week into the entire weekend for the forecast area and that means above average precipitation and that will likely lead to flooding concerns as well as coastal beach erosion. I will get into all of this in a minute. There is going to be no doubt a big fluctuation in apparent weather this Month. One that has been forecasted here a week ago in my First preliminary Blog on the Month of March. Rest assure, it will be a bumpy ride!

Not only will the pacific be transitioning through Changes..the changes in the East based North Atlantic Oscillation will mean slower moving systems along the east Coast coming out of the Plains heading over Us..as a result of the Blocking in SE Canada, the series of these upper level lows will be significant in the fact that they will try to Move to the West of us but get blocked with repositioning themselves over the Mid Atlantic instead. The teleconective indexes continue to point in this direction as the model guidance is strongly hedging their bets on this as well.

The current state of the Arctic oscillation is showing up nicely in the GFS based observations and forecasts and the rapid rising of this area means that temperatures in the upper Stratosphere are beginning to have an overall effect on the lower Stratosphere as temperatures are warming at all levels now and this means more blocking will be seen over Se Canada verse the blocking over Hudson's Bay... None the less..the forecasted Blocking in the North Atlantic is going to be a slow feedback and wind down that will have residual effects on apparent weather in the Mid Atlantic and NE USA through the month As I have been examining. The PNA Index is forecast to remain Positive through Mid Month indicative the continuation of a Ridge West /Trough East Couplet.

The GFS Operational and Ensemble Mean Forecast tracks over the next 14 days Continues to illustrate a wet scenario for the NE and Mid Atlantic Region.
Taking a look at the GFS Operational Model For Saturday, I point out that low pressure both Surface and aloft will be redeveloping slowly off the Mid Atlantic Coast...notice the moisture feed from off the Ocean with a strong inflow of heavy rain over the entire forecast area Saturday Morning. Also notice the inflow even further South as the entire system will slow and bands of rain will develop and move through the entire forecast area through the weekend with the heaviest first concentration on Saturday ..


This will continue through Saturday Night and will lead to several inches of Rainfall over a 24 hour period that will lead to flooding.. The onshore flow along the immediate coast will also have an impact as strong East and SE winds pile up water along the East and South Facing shore points of NJ and the NYC Waterways and inlets.This beach erosion will be a big concern now as recent storms and onshore flow have battered the Monmouth and Ocean and Coastal Atlantic and Cape May Counties this past February. We will be heading towards of New Moon on Sunday leading to Spring Tides... When the moon is full or new, the gravitational pull of the moon and sun are combined. At these times, the high tides are very high and the low tides are very low. This is known as a spring high tide. Spring tides are especially strong tides (they do not have anything to do with the season Spring). They occur when the Earth, the Sun, and the Moon are in a line. The gravitational forces of the Moon and the Sun both contribute to the tides. Spring tides occur during the full moon and the new moon.

6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts

8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)