Gearing Up for The Miller B Snowstorm on Wednesday!

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Watches and Warnings/Traffic and Airport Delays/On This Day In Weather History Criteria for Watches Warnings and Advisories WATCHES A Watch tells you that conditions are favorable and there is a pretty good chance that the event may happen. When a watch is issued begin making preparations for the upcoming event. Listen to your local media to know when warnings are issued. Watches are intended to heighten public awareness of the situation. WARNINGS A warning means that a certain weather event is IMMINENT.Measures should be taken to safeguard life and property IMMEDIATELY ADVISORIES Advisories are issued when events are expected to remain below the warning criteria, but still cause significant inconvenience. Most common in association with snow events. WINTER SEASON WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES SNOW ADVISORY -- A Snow Advisory will be issued when 3-5 inches is expected to fall. *Check with your NWS office for local snowfall requirements. BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY -- A Blowing Snow advisory will be posted for events in which visibility is intermittently 1/4 mile or less. FREEZING RAIN / FREEZING DRIZZLE ADVISORY -- This requires that hazardous driving conditions be taking place and/or up to 1/4 inch of freezing rain on tree branches and/or if power lines break. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY -- A Winter Weather Advisory will be issued if conditions warranting two seperate winter advisories are met. WINTER STORM WATCH -- A Winter Storm Watch may be issued when conditions are forecast to meet the criteria for more than one warning with in the next 36 hours. A watch for a single winter weather event does not exist, for example a Wind Chill Watch or a Heavy Snow Watch. Just the same, if a forecaster thinks there will be significant snow and ice tomorrow, he/she will issue a Winter Storm Watch. WINTER STORM WARNING -- A Winter Storm Warning will be issued if conditions are forecast to meet the criteria for two seperate warnings in the next 12-24 hours. Example: If you have Heavy Snow Warning conditions along with Wind Chill Warning conditions, a Winter Storm Warning will be issued. BLIZZARD WARNING -- A Blizzard Warning will be issued when the following conditions are forecast to last at least 3 hours. Falling and/or blowing snow frequently reducing visibility to < 1/4 mile AND sustained winds or frequent gusts > 35 mph. ICE STORM WARNING -- An Ice StormWarning will be issued if freezing rain/drizzle is occurring with a significant accumulation of ice (more than 1/4 inch) or accumlation of 1/2 inch of sleet. HEAVY SNOW WARNING -- A Heavy Snow Warning will be issued if 6 or more inches of snow is expected in a 12 hour period. Winter Storm Watch Issued: February 08 at 3:55PM EST Expiring: February 11 at 6:00AM EST Issued by NWS NewYorkCity/Upton Urgency: Future Status: Actual Areas affected:Western Passaic; Bergen; Eastern Passaic; Essex; Hudson; Union Wind Advisory Issued: February 08 at 4:19PM EST Expiring: February 11 at 12:00AM EST Issued by NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly Urgency: Expected Status: Actual Areas affected:Western Monmouth; Eastern Monmouth; Ocean; Cumberland; Atlantic; Cape May; Atlantic Coastal Cape May; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Southeastern Burlington Winter Storm Warning Issued: February 08 at 3:51PM EST Expiring: February 11 at 12:00AM EST Issued by NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly Urgency: Expected Status: Actual Areas affected:Sussex; Warren; Morris; Hunterdon; Somerset; Middlesex; Western Monmouth; Eastern Monmouth; Mercer; Salem; Gloucester; Camden; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Cumberland; Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Southeastern Burlington Winter Storm Watch Issued: February 08 at 3:51PM EST Expiring: February 11 at 12:00AM EST Issued by NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly Urgency: Future Status: Actual Areas affected:Cape May; Atlantic Coastal Cape May; Coastal Atlantic Forecast Discussion through the Week Ahead( Get ready)! A Forecaster or meteorologist has little time off any day of the year! Particularly in the Winter do we find any safe refuge from storms! For that matter the consequences of a sunny cold day have enough impact if they are coming off of a previous day's winter storm... And Yes ...ding...ding...ding! we have that! The image to your left is the approximate position of the the storm Track for Wednesday. The image to your Right is the NAM Morning Run of the Total Snowfall expected over the NJ/NYC metro area through 84 hours. Click the Image to enlarge it. Now remember this is the model guidance and where it may suggest the heaviest snowfall to be over Central and Southern NJ extending back through the Delmarva and SE PA and MD. Again these will be the areas that may be impacted the most as banding of snow sets up across these areas. Also to note that this model is further south with the heavier snow . This image to your left is the GFS model guidance out to 120 hours. Again the focus for heavy snow pushing beyond 10 inches stretches across all of Northern and Central NJ into the City with amounts increasing to a foot and a foot and a half over Ne and Eastern PA..including SE PA and the Northern Half of DE the Chesapeake and MD. The reason for the image difference between the two models is simply the way the upper level low develops and it may be and the strong transfer of energy to the coast. The frontogenetic forces between the strong coastal thermal gradient and the bombing surface low offshore will create strong lifting and buoyant air to the left of the surface track ,as is often the case in major storms with well developed features from the surface to the upper troposphere. This will often create deformation zones in the comma head of the departing storm as seen on satellite features as the storm begins to occlude. Deformation,or vertical and horizontal stretching of wind can have lingering heavy snowfall as the storm is exiting to the NE. The newer model data coming in from last night is showing a concentrated inverted trough that will develop offshore Delmarva at the same time the 850 and 700MB low is offshore overhead. Pressures will begin to drop drastically and NE winds and frontogenetic forcing between the surface and mid levels will produce enhancement to the snowfall in bands from the Delmarva upto Northern and Central NJ and into NYC. Here's an example from current last night's Run of the WRF/NAM.. Showing the frontogenesis and heavy burst of snow and increased wind Wednesday afternoon and Evening across The Delmarva upto NYC and then into Southern Connecticut... If this is correct again the placement of bands in the comma head of the deepening surface low will spread back or redevelop heavy or moderate snow in these areas... Again these are features we will have to keep our eyes on. Winds will increase and Blizzard conditions may become imminent for locations particularly along the Delmarva upto Southern NJ Coastal areas...The mid and low level forcing and momentum would cause any mixed precipitation over the coast to turn back to snow! The reason I am bringing all of this up is that where ultimately the heavy snow often 1-3 inch accumulations per hour can be accompanied by mesoscale phenomena such as thunder-snow or inverted troughs that will only be able to be now-casted as the event begins as these features will impact certain areas while robbing others. Unlike the previous HECS(Historic East Coast Snowstorm) on Saturday, this storm again will be far reaching and discrete mesoscale bands North of the developing low pressure system off the coast. This will lead to CSI perhaps. CSI is conditional Symmetric Instability. Often found during large comma shaped winter storms can form over periods of several hours and this will often dictate where frontogenetic forcing will be greatest. I know I am getting into the heart of meteorology here...and the bottom line of heavy snow will wax and wane depending on some of these now casted conditions that will really not become apparant until 12-24 hours out and even still in the now cast of the storm as the low begins to bomb out off the coastal waters. Unlike the previous storm system I would like to draw your attention to two types of storms that are classified coastal storms over the Northeast Corridor. Named after James E. Miller a meteorologist who did extensive research in this area in the 1940s. In short, Miller's research has given meteorologists today a way of describing two different ways Mid-Atlantic storms form. He appropriately named them,"Miller A" and "Miller B" storms. A Miller A type snowstorm has a low which originates in the Gulf; it intensifies and races up the east coast. EX: Superstorm 1993, Blizzard of 1996. These tend to be more widespread in area BUT can be less favorable for historic snows in New England. However, they can clobber portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A Miller B type snowstorm has a primary low over the Appalachians while a new, secondary, and more powerful low spins up along the Gulf Stream waters off the coast of NC. It intensifies and depending on its track can clobber areas of inland or coastal New England. These are less widespread in terms of area and usually miss the Mid-Atlantic. EX: Blizzard of 2005.(this type of setup is forecasted is Forecasted for Wednesday) 6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge) 8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts 8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

Strong Snowstorm Wednesday

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Waking Up Weather/ Watches and Warnings/Traffic and Airport Delays Sunrise Today 7:01AM/Sunset 5:20PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waning Crescent Moon After a needed break on Sunday and Today, the weather will once again present us with another snowfall impact during Wednesday. Below Seasonal Temperatures continue this morning especially over deep snow pack. The water vapor image below and to the right of you I have circled the two disturbances seen in the 2 jet streams across the USA. The Northern System is very potent and will be the one that initiates a coastal storm over the area on Wednesday. A WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OUR AREAS STARTING LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING THURSDAY HPC WWD NUMBERS UP TO2 FEET ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY, BUT FOR NOW NWS USED A STARTING POINT OF 14 TO18 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEYAND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. Forecast Discussion through the Week Ahead( Get ready)! A Forecaster or meteorologist has little time off any day of the year! Particularly in the Winter do we find any safe refuge from storms! For that matter the consequences of a sunny cold day have enough impact if they are coming off of a previous day's winter storm... And Yes ...ding...ding...ding! we have that! The image to your left is the approximate position of the the storm Track for Wednesday. The image to your Right is the 500 MB pattern aloft which clearly shows the Northern Branch disturbance closing off over the Delmarva area. The model output places a significant amount of precipitation across the area on Wednesday. Unlike the previous storm system I would like to draw your attention to two types of storms that are classified coastal storms over the Northeast Corridor. Named after James E. Miller a meteorologist who did extensive research in this area in the 1940s. In short, Miller's research has given meteorologists today a way of describing two different ways Mid-Atlantic storms form. He appropriately named them,"Miller A" and "Miller B" storms. A Miller A type snowstorm has a low which originates in the Gulf; it intensifies and races up the east coast. EX: Superstorm 1993, Blizzard of 1996. These tend to be more widespread in area BUT can be less favorable for historic snows in New England. However, they can clobber portions of the Mid-Atlantic. A Miller B type snowstorm has a primary low over the Appalachians while a new, secondary, and more powerful low spins up along the Gulf Stream waters off the coast of NC. It intensifies and depending on its track can clobber areas of inland or coastal New England. These are less widespread in terms of area and usually miss the Mid-Atlantic. EX: Blizzard of 2005.(this type of setup is forecasted is Forecasted for Wednesday) 6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge) 8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts 8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

Live SuperBowl Weekend 2010 Nor'Easter Coverage

Watches and Warnings /Traffic and Airport Delays

Snowstorm Saturday.. Chance of Snow Next Wednesday

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Morning model guidance continues to track the coastal storm a bit further south but still within the benchmark. changes seens in the SREF and NAM/WRF do not appear to change the impact..so the forecast at this time remains unchanged. The sharp cut off of precipitation is noted on the NAM with extreme NW Nj not showing very much snow...but Cape May and Atlantic City showing the potential for over a foot and a Half. This will be a tight storm with the slightest of storm track varying buy location. I will continue to monitor the trends and will be issuing a live coverage update beginning tomorrow as time permits. THE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING AND WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHAMPTON, WARREN, AND MORRIS COUNTIES. WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE WINDS HOWLING OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST, A BLIZZARD WARNING WAS RAISED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN NEW JERSEY EXCEPT FOR MONMOUTH AND KENT AND SUSSEX IN DELAWARE. Waking Up Weather/ Watches and Warnings/Traffic and Airport Delays Sunrise Today 7:06AM/Sunset 5:16PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waning Gibbous Moon Clear to Partly cloudy skies greet you r sunrise this morning and temperatures are in the upper 20's to low 30's with winds out of the NW and gusty as well making for wind chill values in the upper teens to mid 20's. High pressure extended from the Lake Winnipeg through Minnesota down through Ohio and South Carolina. Our big storm developing in the Gulf of Texas spreading it's shield of Precipitation into Wyoming along the front Range of the Rockies down through Kansas..Oklahoma..Texas.. Missouri..Arkansas.. Louisiana ...Alabama..Georgia..Mississippi..well you get the drift! A very big impacting storm that I will break down for you in terms of impact in a minute. Winter Storm Watches are up for Hunterdon; Somerset; Middlesex; Western Monmouth; Eastern Monmouth; Mercer; Salem; Gloucester; Camden; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Cumberland; Atlantic; Cape May; Atlantic Coastal Cape May; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Southeastern Burlington counties. With a general 6-12 inches of snow as I estimated yesterday is now included in the watch area . Wherever banding of snow occurs especially over the Delmarva and Central and Southern NJ amounts over a foot. Today will be mainly sunny and cold with near seasonal temperatures as high pressure is in control. Tonight will be mainly clear with increasing cloudiness overnight...temperatures will fall into the mid teens and lower 20's on a light Northerly flow. Friday will be cloudy and seasonably cold before the storm with temperatures running in the mid and upper 30's as winds become NE. Forecast Discussion through The Week and into Next Week Snow will overspread the area Friday night. Winds from the NE will increase and the snow will become heavy as times especially over the Delmarva and into central and Southern NJ overnight Saturday Morning. Temperatures will remain in the 20's and stay there through the snow storm on Saturday. The low will reach off the NC coast and intensify to off the Virginia Coast on Saturday afternoon and deepen slowly off the Virginia coast before pulling out to sea on Sunday Morning. As a result the entire forecast area will be in the snow. The snow fall amounts again will be wide reaching and the heaviest snow will likely fall over eastern MD ..North and Central DE and Coastal Central and Southern NJ from Monmouth South.. and yes for my Friends in Mercer the snow will be piling up for you in Ewing as well . The latest guidance this morning is suggesting that a steady and impressive band area will be setting up offshore coastal and southern NJ spreading inland through Ocean down through New Castle and Kent County in DE . Snowfall will be sharply edging off across Southern CT and Extreme NW NJ on Saturday afternoon as the main focus is along the coast points south and West. Any change in the track will change the entire forecast amounts. That is why there are still no advisories or warnings for NW NJ however,,,a general 3-8 inch range will be widespread in these areas with higher amounts down through Central NJ. The lighter amounts will be seen over NW NJ and the Poconos but everyone will see accumulating snowfall on Saturday and for some in the lollipop areas... more than what you may want to shovel. In addition to the deepening storm will be coastal flooding concerns and minor beach erosion along the SE NJ and DE coasts..however the big concern is for the blowing and drifting of the snow in the coastal communities as the low intensifies so will the NE winds to 25-30 mph with higher gusts..so if you reside along the immediate coast..that's you! These amounts are based on a compromise of this morning and last night's guidance from the GFS and the NAM/WRF. Though the Nam is cluster and farther North with the banding of heavier snow while the GFS is further south and less impressive. Snow will begin to taper off from NW to Se Saturday night with a sharper cut off where Areas in NW NJ and the NE PA get out of the snow nearly all together while in the deformation band of the exiting storm pulls snow up along and offshore central and Southern NJ to the City and southern CT and LI Saturday night into Southern New England coastal communities Sunday Morning. Clearing will commence on Sunday with cold temperatures over snow pack...Fair and cold weather will be with us through Tuesday with increasing clouds and the chance for light snow developing Tuesday night and Wednesday as a weak system moves east and a weak low pressure system pushes off the Mid Atlantic coast. Temperatures will run below seasonal levels this upcoming week. I will have all the final details and graphs and maps up tonight. 6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge) 8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts 8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

Gearing Up for A Major Winter Storm This Weekend!

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Waking Up Weather/ Watches and Warnings/Traffic and Airport Delays Sunrise Today 7:07AM/Sunset 5:14PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waning Gibbous Moon Good Morning. Well I guess we have a split decision in the groundhog's forecast with LI Chuck seeing Spring on the way soon and Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow and 6 more weeks of Winter. My forecast is based on Science and what lies before us is still Winter, and Winter is what you are waking up to this morning . Light snow continues to push off to the east and the Advisories will be dropped by 7AM as it does so. Overall there is a 1-3 inch total with the heavier bands across the Southern areas. Low pressure off the NC Coast will continue to pull away today. Light snow was falling at my wakeup hour at 4 AM across a large portion of Eastern NJ down through Delaware. by 6Am it is now pushing rapidly offshore. Another area of snow was over PA downwind the Great Lakes as a result of the Northern Trough yet to swing through thisafternoon. The usual speed restrictions are set on the bridges..tunnels and turnpikes but no major incidents on the roadways yet...but do be careful this morning. Already seeing some slip and slides out there on the traffic reports across the area and as commuters make their way out onto the roads..more will be coming in. There are also no delays at the airports... Traffic and Airport Delays can be found by clicking on the links. Temperatures were in the 20's North and Central and then into upto the freezing mark elsewhere...The range at 6 AM was 21 in High Point to 33 in Atlantic City... and winds were under 10mph from the North with fog being reported at many stations. Forecast Discussion through The Week and into Next Week Today will feature more cloud then sun as a result of 2 systems..The first moving further offshore the Carolina's and ending the rapidly rightward moving edge of the precipitation offshore this morning. The second upper trough and front over NY State will slide through southern New England this afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonable with readings in the upper 30's to around 40. Breaks in the overcast with clearing will be evident tonight as temperatures drop into upper teens and lower 20's. Fair weather will continue through Thursday as High pressure builds over the area. Mainly sunny skies on Thursday with temperatures near seasonal levels near the upper 30's to near 40. Clouds will increase Friday from South to North with Southern sections getting into the overcast early on as a large storm begins to pull out from the Gulf coast states. A strong agreement as seen in all models in the upper features are coming together for a winter storm threat over the Mid Atlantic and also will be impacting the NJ/NYC metro areas on Saturday. First off will be the very active subtropical branch which already over Mexico and Texas this morning is fueling a large area of rain from the Gulf of Texas through New Mexico. This will be moving East Northeast as a strong disturbance in the Northern Stream phases over the Tennessee Valley Saturday Morning. This will rapidly intensify and deepen a surface low offshore NC on Saturday. As such the guidance envelope of track and speed coupled with the intensifying mid and low level lift and frontogenetic forces will push a wealth of precipitation up through the Virginia's and Delaware to the Central and east Coastal communities of NJ and into the Five Boroughs of NYC and LI on Saturday as snow spreads up Overnight into Saturday Morning and continues throughout the day. The storm will continue to deepen and model guidance is suggesting a very strong banding and intensifying jet along the Delaware and NJ coastlines on Saturday. This area will see a increase in very strong E/SE winds aloft while the mid and low levels continue in a East/NE flow. The winds are progged to increase and as the precipitation(mainly in the form of Snow ) continues to increase in intensity..overall a widespread moderate to heavy snowfall is now becoming more likely across the area. In addition as strong winds and precipitation increases near whiteout or blizzard like conditions may impact the area especially along the immediate Central and Southern NJ coast. There will likely be impacts from the warming aloft on the onshore flow as the low closes off offshore and deepens during Saturday. There could be issues with precipitation type especially over Coastal SE NJ where the last 2 systems had snow..the amount of warming aloft will likely have a mixing of precipitation types going back over to all snow before tapering down and ending Saturday night. The forecast will be a challenging one where Northern Sections above 1-80 and 287 into the Hudson valley will be on the northern fringes but also the thermal thickness will support all snow in these areas. In fact Most of where the heavier banded snow begins to take shape over Coastal Monmouth down to Philadelphia and DE will have to be monitored as strong lift and rapidly cooling air in the deformation area will support moderate to heavy snow for these locations especially Saturday Morning. This again may lead to near white out conditions with blowing and drifting. The determination of snow amounts will be considered a final call later on Thursday as guidance suggests the closest track and thermal features. Rest assured Saturday is going to be a rough travel day complete with strong coastal winds ..heavy Precipitation and Moderate to locally heavy embedded snowfall across many locations of the TRI State area.. especially over Philadelphia and the Northern DE Valley into NJ. Temperatures will be running in the mid and upper 20's Interior North and NYC area Saturday and near or above freezing Southern sections and the Delmarva. This coupled with mid level temperature dew points below freezing will support a moderate to locally heavy snowfall across the area. Rough estimates could range in the 6-12 inch category across Northern NJ and the NYC area with over a foot of snow where the strongest banding forms across coastal and southern NJ communities. This is a rough estimate now based on GFS model output. This is not a forecast yet in finite form..but the consensus here is beginning to show that the surface low will be closer to the coast and further North. This is going to be one wet and wintry forecast and the first major snowfall of the year thus far. Coastal flooding and some beach erosion is still a possibility that will have to be considered on Saturday along the coast as the strong onshore flow continues to build. After the storm exits clearing will commence Sunday with fair weather forecast through Monday and Early Tuesday before another Northern Stream system with some Subtropical branch influence makes it's way across the areas Tuesday night into Wednesday. Again we could be looking at light amounts of snow. Things to say the least will be interesting on Saturday and if all goes at progged...then you can bet travel will all be hampered . For some who know my day schedule..it will be impossible for me to cover this storm in live updates... but depending on how busy my work schedule is Saturday, I will try to have the live event up and running and I will of course gear the site up for the event with everything you need to know. With snow pack and clearing Sunday on NW Winds expect the temperatures to be in the teens to low 20's across the interior and remain in the 20's elsewhere. More to come throughout today and Tonight. 6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge) 8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts 8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

Snowstorm Potential For The Weekend Grows

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Waking Up Weather/ Watches and Warnings/Traffic and Airport Delays Sunrise Today 7:08AM/Sunset 5:13PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waxing Gibbous Moon Current Morning Model Runs continue the Winter Storm Threat for the weekend. Details tonight . Today is Ground hog's day and whether or not this morning a shadow emerges from PA for the thousands of spectators or not,winter will continue in earnest here for the foreseeable future. The weather over the next 24 hours will be a teaser of what will come at the end of the week. A trough and surface low racing up from off the Mid Atlantic will produce light snow and flurries over the forecast area this afternoon ..with a better chance of light snow accumulating upto an inch over the area overnight and Wednesday morning. Temperatures will be seasonal as we go through Wednesday. Dry weather will result from Wednesday afternoon through Friday as High Pressure rebuilds over the forecast area. Clouds will increase on Friday and Rain and Snow could develop during the afternoon especially over the Southern Areas. The Winds will shift into the NE and increase as a very active and potentially heavy snow event unfolds for the Mid Atlantic corridor from DC upto NYC and the Southern New England area Friday night through Saturday. The model output image to your right indicates good agreement now early on of a potentially heavy winter storm complete with strong winds and heavy snow could blanket the forecast area. Now this data is in agreement from all the models at this time and even the ensembles. With such a wealth of support going forth. It is prudent to mention that the period from Friday night through Saturday could feature a strong winter storm across the forecast area ..one with heavy snow banding across the southern sections and snow as well along the coast and into central and Northern NJ and the NYC metro areas depending on the track and intensity. The modeling is now in agreement that the two streams will phase in a neutral to negative trough position over the mid Atlantic as the temperatures aloft cool and the spread of the precipitation becomes heavy in the snow growth regions of the clouds. It is way to early to pin down amounts and locations other than what I just mentioned .and as I said a couple of days ago..this week is going to be nail biting for forecasters. I will be monitoring all of this as time allows..and it would go to figure that my work schedule is a hectic and long one this week. As a result I will try to add more to this through the day or tonight. 6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge) 8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts 8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

Weekend Storm Potential(Early Thoughts)

Interesting Reads

NOAA Ranks December Snowstorm a Category 3 on the Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale

World Record blown Away

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Watches and Warnings/Traffic and Airport Delays Sunrise Today 7:08AM/Sunset 5:12PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waning Gibbous Moon Big changes are afoot in the weather pattern and forecast over the area this upcoming week and will likely hold a large impact on actual weather.The depiction to your immediate Right is the GFS model output from this mornings run which takes a very strong and deepening coastal low off the NC coast once again. However , like this past weekend's event, the details on future images not shown here show the system moving due east with the large extent and Northward expansion of the low's track and precipitation output to be offshore . This could be another example where the model guidance at this early stage does not have a full handle on track and intensity. There are a number of variables here that will need to be answered and if this past Saturday night along the Washington DC to Coastal NJ shore was any example of the micro physics and dynamical environmental variables like thermal gradients along the immediate coast, then we are going to be in for a bumpy ride over the week ahead as far as guidance goes. What you should be coming away with here is not the specific output as verbatim,but rather the overall synoptic pattern that can lead to the event this upcoming weekend again. Be rest assured the model guidance has a very active pattern set forth this early in the game and no doubt the consensus is pointing to a Mid Atlantic coastal storm. The phasing and interaction of the polar and subtropical branches at the same time as the departure or weakening of the Polar vortex seen on the ECMWF image above over New Brunswick Canada holds the key to the idea that the storm could pull further North rather than east and that my friends, is the big concern and has been with the past two events. The other issues as far as precipitation type and intensity will have to be ironed out as the storm systems get into better RAOB collecting regions of the guidance this week. The idea espoused from all guidance suggest an argument for time..and thermal interactions and where the surface and mid level track boundaries will lye. I will no doubt be very busy this week ahead as all of this unfolds.

6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts

8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

Cold Weekend.. Moderation in Sight Next Week

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Waking Up Weather/ Watches and Warnings/Traffic and Airport Delays Sunrise Today 7:10AM/Sunset 5:09PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waxing Gibbous Moon Skies were mainly clear before sunrise this morning... a few lower clouds over Northern NJ and some high clouds getting close to South Jersey... and it is cold for sure outside Dew points are -1 degree with surface temperatures in the teens . 6 degrees at Mt.Pocono..and a range from 5 at High Point to 21 in Atlantic City. Gusty NW Winds making the wind chills when you step out the door in the single digits. Satellite shows upper closed low over Quebec and strong upper closed low over The Texas Panhandle.. with it over 100,000 people without power in Oklahoma...and a myriad or real estate with winter weather. Winter Storm Warnings from New Mexico all the way to the Carolina's and State's of Emergency declared in Virginia. Fortunately for us, this system will not impact our area as hard as it is ongoing across the South currently and into Saturday as it makes it's way to the east coast. Forecast Discussion through Next Week AT the surface, High Pressure is building in from the upper Midwest...as a result of convergence and confluence between the two aforementioned storm systems.. Generally clear and cold weather will result today and tonight..although high level cloudiness will get into the Southern areas and the Delmarva overnight as the approach of the southern storm system spreads eastward. Temperatures will hold in the 20's this afternoon and back in the teens tonight as the cloud cover increases over a very bone dry cold domain. A Wealth of clouds around on Saturday and the Brisk NW Wind begins to slacken but it's presence still felt in the arctic airmass...temperatures will remain in the 20's. Skies will become sunny during Sunday afternoon especially Northern sections into the NYC metro..more clouds still over Southern Sections. Any snow on Saturday may get into extreme Southern NJ..all other areas North where it snows should be either very light or Virga evaporating in the bone dry air. Delaware and the Delmarva right now still maintain the best chance of seeing a couple of inches of snow.. Temperatures will moderate to 25-30 range Sunday afternoon. 30-35 Monday South and 25-30 North, with a good amount of fair weather Sunday overnight and Monday as well. Clouds will increase on Monday night and Tuesday as a weak cold front moves across..other than cloud cover we are not anticipating any precipitation..just a reinforcing of the airmass in place...Temperatures getting above freezing in the afternoon. And More cloudiness will be North with more sun and clearer weather over Southern NJ this go around. A Mix of clouds and sun on Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures getting to near 40 once again..a disturbance over the Southern States heads out to sea... Temperatures back to Seasonal on Friday on a SW wind..Clouds increase with a southern system getting into the area next weekend in the form of rain. Temperatures are forecast to be running in the low and middle 40's . 6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge) 8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts 8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)