A Busy Holiday week with a a Busy Weather Pattern... |GardenStateWeather.Com

Today's Graphics... Click on Images To Enlarge

Waking Up Weather
Sunrise Today 6:52AM/Sunset 4:33PM. (West Orange Civil Time)First Quarter Moon
Watches Warnings and Advisories click on the link(active)

We begin today with Coastal Flood Advisories for Atlantic , Cape May, Cumberland, Ocean and SE Burlington Counties. NE winds were gusting into the lower 20's this morning and High tide cycles are between noon and 3PM this afternoon. Recent Beach Erosion from the Nor'easter of last week has caused considerable damage to the sand dunes in these counties.Minor flooding will be possible.

Elsewhere inland in New Jersey and the rest of the Garden State into the NYC metro areas this morning the cloud shield that was moving up and in from the south and from off the Ocean has won out a slow battle. Precipitation was edging in from off the ocean and to our south as well and the winds were from the NE but at lighter speeds 10-15 MPH.. Temperatures were generally in the 40's but ranged from a low of 33 at High Point to 55 in Point Pleasant.

Forecast Discussion through the Holiday Week

A Raw November day replaces a Gorgeous Late Autumn November Sunday today...Well it's just another manic Monday.. Short Holiday week and a raw one weather wise. High pressure Remains strong with it's heels down the Appalachian spine. The raw onshore NE wind is also making it feel chillier than it is. and temperatures today will not rise more than 50 or so...High Pressure will continue to hold sway as low pressure develops and moves off the North Carolina coast out into the Ocean south and east. Most of the upper level dynamics gets sheared offshore and with the onshore flow and low level moisture present..the model guidance suggests for light rain and drizzle to get into our area during this afternoon. While the bulk of the energy remains offshore. The light rain and drizzle and temperatures in the 40's will remain into the overnight.

High pressure will partially dry us out on a North Wind Tuesday..but residual low level moisture trapped underneath and inversion will keep the sky generally cloudy. Early morning light rain and drizzle will give way to breaks on the overcast during the afternoon and at night. Temperatures will be in the lower 50's Tuesday and again near 40 Tuesday night.

Big changes continue in the highly amplifying weather pattern. For Wednesday, skies will start off with sunshine but cloudiness and rain are not far behind. This is one if not the busiest travel day of the year and it does look like the weather will at the very least make the time and travel doable. Onshore winds will increase as the clouds thicken up at the airport terminals and temperatures on the metro runways run in the upper 50's to near 60 for most departures.

Strong upper level trough will be developing across the Mid West...As new shortwave energy dives into the trough it will begin to deepen over the Mississippi Valley. The onshore easterly flow may allow for some light rain or drizzle to develop on Thanksgiving Day. but it should be mainly cloudy and very chilly. Surface low pressure will cut up into the Great Lakes with a new center forming along the Mid Atlantic. The bulk of the energy again shifts offshore and we lay between the upper low to the west and the strong sheared environment offshore. Better finish the Turkey and all the trimmings..you will need the meat on your bones and the Fat also...pardon the desserts ! to get through Black Friday ... Because what ever your travel plans include that day ...whether it be to get to the front of the line at 3AM or sleep in and get out later... Bring the warmer gear with you and the umbrella too.. Better Make it a strong Umbrella.

As the upper low intensifies Thursday night it will tap into and phase with the Subtropical jet running from the Gulf to offshore the eat coast. Shortwave energy will round the base of the trough and initiate rapid cyclogenesis over the Mid Atlantic Friday Morning. Rain will increase along the frontogenetic/deformation area over PA and Virginia as the rain intensifies through out the day...Central PA may wind up with a very rainy Friday! The low pressure center at the surface will begin bombing out as winds and rain increase during Friday afternoon. The heaviest of which will be moving right through the NE NJ /NYC area and into the Hudson Valley. The Mid level temperatures will take a nose dive and intensify the low and the wind and drop the temperatures steadily aloft. Any residual light moisture left around NE PA and Northern NJ on Friday afternoon could ...could be mixed with snow showers. I am not seeing accumulations...however do not be surprised by this. Friday night and Saturday will be windy as the entire upper low lifts into NY State and Northern New England.

A strong West to Northwest wind will send residual streamers in the form of snow showers downwind the Lakes. A few flakes may fly in the air on Saturday with a generally cloudy day especially in the Northern Sections with a low stratocumulus sky and a brisk West Wind and plenty of residual moisture as ambient air temperatures struggle in the 40's. Skies over southern areas of the Garden state will break with Partly Sunny Saturday but it will remain windy and chilly with temperatures in the 40's.

December Thoughts

High pressure surface and aloft will build in Saturday night into Sunday providing less wind for sure and a clearer sky and a moderation in Temperature. This however, will not last long! Strong High pressure off the West coast will lead to a highly amplified pattern continuing in to the first week of December which begins on Wednesday. First the weather break will continue into Monday and early Tuesday. temperatures will be chilly under the upper level trough on Sunday with readings in the upper 40's to low 50's..but with less wind and clear skies it will feel OK!. Monday skies should be Mainly fair and milder. An increase in cloud cover will likely be the result next Tuesday... Another amplified short wave in the Polar stream will begin to deepen into a trough once again over the Mid West. The Southern Stream cut off energy left behind in the Great Basin will interact with the polar stream system and develop a full latitude trough and cut off low over The Mississippi Valley Wednesday. Strong SW winds and an intensifying jet will develop and increase with strong convergence along the midatlantic to open up December.

Rain will develop on Wednesday and increase in coverage and intensity as low pressure strengthens over the Carolina's... The GFS wants to keep the Main Trough Axis to our West so that the surface low is inland .. This if true would increase the onshore flow and very heavy rainfall will move up the Mid Atlantic into the NE as strong upper level divergence in the jet structure makes for a near classic text book example of the mid latitude cyclone. I caution though that this far out in the modeling with the placement and precision of the surface and upper air features could be greatly off... But the guidance has been suggesting a strong storm for some time now on the panels... Even more after this storm departs ..there is already more powerhouse storms pushing inland the Pacific ..crossing the continental divide and interacting with a strong and southward displacement of the Subtropical jet stream. Another strong storm all within the first week of December may have eyes for the mid Atlantic and NE...This one on the back side of the storm could even have some snow mixed in as it exits Monday the 7Th of December...

The final details of course will come in time as wish casting is not forecasting... Still the groundwork is laid out before us that this stronger than average ENSO may be waning in the first couple of weeks of December . We may wind up with an active start and then a break with a gradual reloading of storms with yet another pattern change just before Christmas....

More Later!

6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)