A Busy Weather Pattern Shaping Up Through The End Of November! |GardenStateWeather.Com

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Waking Up Weather
Sunrise Today 6:50AM/Sunset 4:34PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waxing Crescent Moon
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High and mid level cirrus was streaming North over The Garden State early this morning after a clear start last night. This is in association with an upper level jet /trough couplet which is producing occasional scattered to broken cloudiness. Winds were calm or light from the West and temperatures across New Jersey ranged from 29 in Sparta and Walpack and Pequest to 48 in Wildwood and Lower Township in South Jersey. Throughout temperatures ranged in the lower 30's to mid 40's.

Forecast Discussion through the weekend and Next Week

High pressure was building in to our West. However, there is a stream of high level moisture associated with a jet structure/upper level trough west of the area. This will continue to lead to broken high and mid level cloudiness today. While the skies will be filled with enough sunshine as well. Winds will continue from the North and temperatures will average in the 50's throughout. Tonight will be mainly clear as the trough lifts NE and High pressure axis shifts towards the coast. A nearly calm wind and mostly clear sky should allow for temperatures to drop into the 30's and lower 40's once again on Sunday before Sunup.

Sunshine may win out on Sunday at first. Cloudiness will then increase throughout the day on Sunday once again..but slowly and perhaps later... so it may be clear Northern Sections and Southern Areas . First the upper level trough and cloudiness will be stuck underneath High pressure over Northern New England. (somewhat of a block) this will gradually shift our winds into the NE. Meanwhile to the South ..Low Pressure will redevelop along an inverted trough over the southern Mid Atlantic . The moisture will then begin to increase our cloudiness Sunday into Sunday night. Precipitation however will likely hold off until Monday. As the low moves Northeast and out over the coastal waters South of The NJ/Delmarva area on Monday night.

The model consensus is still split to how far the low will get and to the extent of the precipitation shield as well .The NAM is the furthest North and the GFS the furthest South. So a compromise of sorts needs to be made. Sunshine may win out on Sunday but cloudiness should increase from South to North during the late afternoon and evening as high pressure moves offshore Northern New England and low pressure approaches from the south. Periods of rain will develop on Monday and may linger into Monday night before a little Break in the action on Tuesday.,

The handling of the next shortwave and trough will swing towards the Great lakes on Tuesday with and increase in cloud cover and warm air advection ahead of this system. Most of the energy will be to our West but there will be an increase in cloudiness yet again. The frontal structure associated with the low will pass on Wednesday.. So an increase in scattered showers will be in the offing for Tuesday night and early Wednesday.. then a break yet again. A strong upper low will then dive into the upper Midwest and lift back up towards the Great Lakes on Thursday Thanksgiving.

From the get go the models are still out of touch with the handling and timing of all these features. For now a strong cold front associated with this upper low will push through the area Thanksgiving late. There may be some showers out ahead of this as we will remain on the east side(warmer W upper flow of this low. However the cold front is pretty steep in the upper level but most of the moisture and dynamics will be removed to our North with the low. Skies will vary from cloud and Sun on Wednesday to a more cloudier sky Thanksgiving. There is indication the upper level trough will become negative as it translates towards the Coast.

What this means is that low pressure may form off the Southern New England coast and deepen on it's Way Up North Friday. So the air mass will change sharply from mild to chilly and cooler on Friday . The showers Thursday afternoon and evening will lead to clearing windy and chilly weather for your Black Friday with temperatures in the 40's.

I will have better details and the long range in the next segment which will be issued late tonight or very Early Sunday Morning... Albeit to say..the final weekend of November will henge downward in temperature. Saturday it will likely be sunny as strong high pressure builds in..however the air will be unseasonably chilly with reading s remaining in the 40's.

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