Happy Thanksgiving!!! |GardenStateWeather.Com

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Waking Up Weather
Sunrise Today 6:55AM/Sunset 4:32PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waxing Gibbous Moon
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I hope you can find the turkey if you are hunting for it out there this morning... It may be hiding in the FOG. Fog has certainly been a real problem overnight and predawn this Thanksgiving Day. Visibilities are being reduced to 1/4 to 3/4 of a mile in many locations. temperatures were uniform in the upper 40's to the lower 50's. The onshore wind is light or nearly calm. Temperature extremes were 39 at Cape May County Courthouse 41 at High Point and 52 at Cherry Hill Teterboro and Newark. Airports were doing OK...with general departure and arrival delays of 15 minutes or less.

Surface analysis shows weak low pressure off the Long Island NY ..a intensifying coastal low off the SC and Florida coast...and the upper low digging in across the upper Midwest with surface centers in the Great Lakes. In between we have weak higher pressure...over The Garden State this morning..

Forecast Discussion through the Holiday Weekend

The models last night and early this morning continue the trend of keeping the bulk of the heaviest precipitation away from the area and out over LI and interior southern New England. that is not to say we will not see rain chances here. The upper low over the Great lakes and the short waves drivivg the trough Negative will ignite the low pressure off the Carolina coast on it's travel towards New England tonight and Friday. By Friday morning the storm will undergo rapid deepening as winds increase and the rain shield spreads out...the heaviest rains will be occurring over the ocean and then heading in toward long island and southern New England on Friday morning and afternoon.

Meanwhile the upper low will be crossing directly overhead the Garden State..the two areas of precipitation..the coastal and the upper low itself will begin to spread precipitation westward from off the ocean to inland beginning tonight and into Friday morning. periods of rain will taper down to showers by Friday afternoon as the lows consolidate over New England. The real story will be the winds..and they should be arriving a day after the balloons from Macy's are taken down and put back in the warehouses..... Wind advisories may be needed for Friday night and Saturday. The temperatures will also drop like a bomb and the wind chill will add to the discomfort of being outside or between shopping bags on Black Friday and Saturday.

West winds will increase from 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 MPH from Friday afternoon through Saturday inland and up to 40 mph gusts are possible in eastern sections and along the coast and in the NYC Metro areas... so if your Black Friday or Saturday plans include going into NYC to see the tree in Rockefeller Center or Ice Skating in Central Park or shopping ..the wind will be more amplified in the City. Temperatures will be falling through the 40's on Friday and into the 30's Friday night and in the 40's again on Saturday. The wind combined with the temperatures will make the ambient temperature feel like the upper 20's and lower and mid 30's. So bundle UP. Compute the wind chill here .

Skies will break for sunshine on Saturday as the storm pulls away and high pressure builds in over the forecast area through Monday with ridge axis over The Garden State on Sunday. We loose the wind but it will remain chilly through Sunday with lows under partly cloudy to clear skies Saturday night in the 30's and highs on Sunday with lighter winds and bright blue skies in the upper 40's to upper 50's southern New Jersey.

Fair weather will continue through Sunday night and Monday and then clouds will be on the increase once again Monday afternoon. The models are becoming a bit more clearer on the evolution of the next weeks weather. High pressure and SW winds aloft will give way to a positively tilted trough extending from Se Canada to a cut off low in the southern Branch over Texas on Tuesday. n the Northern Branch a cold front will be passing through the NJ metro areas early Tuesday morning. The chances for showers will also increase as the front comes through Monday night into Tuesday morning. A breezy SW wind will be ahead of the front with temperatures in the upper 30's to mid 40's and rising into 40's and lower 50's on Tuesday. Cloudiness will give way perhaps to some breaks North on Tuesday afternoon while the rest of the forecast area remains predominately cloudy.

The front will stall offshore and await the developing trough and low pressure over the Se to move up toward the Great lakes with a second center riding up along the coastal plain on Tuesday into Wednesday. The break in the rainfall will be on Tuesday before precipitation ramps up Tuesday night and Wednesday now. The trough will lift and swing negatively tilted toward the coast..as low pressure redevelops along the Carolina coast and lifts Ne on Wednesday afternoon and night. Weak high pressure building in ahead of the system will turn our winds back on shore and the winds will increase Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with periods of rain redeveloping and spreading in late Tuesday night and Wednesday. The rain could become heavy Wednesday afternoon and evening in the metro NJ and NYC area. We will remain on the eastern side of the trough as it lifts into the Great Lakes on Thursday..this is the milder side and therefore no frozen precipitation is expected.

The pattern will turn colder after the rain and embedded shortwaves will translate through the area from Thursday afternoon into Saturday. As a result the upper low in Canada will open and weaken gradually as the entire pattern in North America shifts from the wavy meridional flow to one that is more zonal. Atmospheric heights will lift and the weather for the late weekend next week and the 2nd week of December offering more fun and games as the Polar branch becomes yet again active and sends deepening troughs into the Us and amplifies the flow and storm potential once again.... December is going to continue to be active.. The question is how much cold air and snowfall will occur to lay down the frame work of this current El Nino pattern...

The NAO and the AO are going in the tank...so we are going to have a active weather month ahead... If you have noticed thus far ..the main trough positions remain to our West with great lakes Cutters...this is something we will have to keep in mind as we head down through the first official month of Winter..the flows have been active.. lets see if we can get the trough position toward the east coast in the means and then we can begin to talk about Winter!

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