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Waking Up Weather
Sunrise Today 6:54AM/Sunset 4:32PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waxing Gibbous Moon
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Cloudy skies and Fog begin at sunup this morning on one of the busiest travel days of the holiday season. Temperatures were in the 40's to near 5o and Winds were onshore from the NE /East at under 10 MPH. Temperatures ranged from 38 in High Point to 52 in Atlantic City.

Current surface analysis shows weak low pressure well off the Mid Atlantic extending North to offshore New England. Upper low pressure and surface reflection with frontal system extending from the Great Lakes to Louisiana and moisture pooling into the Panhandle of Florida and more rain and thunder across southern Florida. A strong upper disturbance that will aid in the change in our weather is crossing the Upper Mid West.

Forecast Discussion through the Holiday Weekend

The RUC model guidance this morning shows high pressure extending from Maine down through New Jersey. Pressures were beginning to fall slowly to the South and west. Near surface winds were from the NE and East bringing in the damp and cool marine layer. Upstairs at 5000 feet and beyond..winds were veering into the SW ahead of the aforementioned front and low heading up toward the Great Lakes.

The latest model guidance today suggests we will be in between systems. The developing area of convection and rain in the Gulf and southern Florida will develop into a surface low off the Se coast. Over the past several model runs of several models shows a disconnect between this developing system and the the storm system that will be re energized over the Mid West today. As such they will meet up for a rendezvous to far east and to far north for our latitude's weather. However that is not to say they will not have an impact. As they amalgamate over Northern New England and southern Canada over the early part of the weekend they will leave a strong reminder! Wind and much chillier air. SO if you have gotten use to the mild balmy weather of late...changes are afoot!

In pieces and parts! Well it sure looks as though the majority of the model suites would like to keep the systems and the two streams separate until they marry in southern New England on Black Friday. I guess you could say that a Black wedding is in Order(pardon the pun!)

OK Here we go...I am going to base this forecast on a blend of both the NAM and GFS as they are generally in the same camp at this point. Overcast skies and fog this morning will be brightening slightly.. If you lived in Northern NJ yesterday when I called for cloudy skies,,well that was your bright moment as everywhere surrounding that bulls eye was cloudy. Today will not be the same and although there may be some brightening and certainly a lifting out of the fo in all places today..high and middle level cloudiness will continue to advect in . Winds will be onshore and temperatures will be in the lower side of guidance in the low and middle 50's.

Tonight a weak short wave will cross the area with some warm air advective light rain showers. They will be most concentrated over Northern Sections and should not interfere with any travel plans from the terminals. There are no flight delays at the metro airports this morning either. Slightly dryer air moves in for the first Part of Thanksgiving as we await the change.. Thanksgiving day early morning travel will be fine though as shortwave high pressure builds in over the Garden State forecast area . Temperatures will run from the 40's before dawn Thursday to the middle 50's and into the 60's Thursday afternoon. In fact it will be quite pleasant and the last day of mild readings for at least the next several days beyond. There will be breaks in the clouds to partial sunshine tomorrow making your feast a Great One!

A strong cold front will cross the area Thursday night proceeded and accompanied by light rain showers. Skies will even perhaps break on Friday morning as the winds shift to the West and NW. But then cloudiness and windy conditions will move in as the cold air aloft rushes toward the warmer waters and the pressure gradient increases as the two systems partner up in SouthernNew England.

The upper low and channeled vorticity will rush off the New England Coast Friday night and with it light rain and Northern Snow showers or even a period of rain/sleet in the far Northern Areas Friday night into early Saturday morning. Temperatures will tumble on Friday into Saturday as shortwave disturbances in the NW flow add to the chilly air. Readings in NJ will be falling off from the 40's into the 30's ..with highs on Saturday in the 40's...Brisk winds may require wind advisories as well. Partial sun and cloud will be the general rule on Saturday and then winds will abate and skies will clear off Saturday night into Monday as high pressure builds in. temperatures though will be nearing 50-55 Sunday and in the 50's on Monday...

Early next week...another frontal system and strong cut off upper low will be cutting up through the Great Lakes...Cool high pressure off the Northern Atlantic will lead to an onshore wind and increase in clouds from Monday night on...As the low intensifies the trough over the Mid est..a surge of moisture will be leading up along the developing frontal structure. The front will be slow to get through until Wednesday as rain develops and moves along the front Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning..

6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)