Rain and Snow showers? Colder and WIndy Black Friday |GardenStateWeather.Com

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Waking Up Weather
Sunrise Today 6:53AM/Sunset 4:33PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waxing Gibbous Moon
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Again this morning there are still coastal flood advisories in effect for our immediate southern NJ coastal communities...click on the link for info. Meanwhile an upper level short wave was lifting through the southern NJ area. Satellite and radar show this as a pocket of moderate rain occurring in several locations across E PA and the southern NJ /Delmarva area...Surface observations at 6 AM continue to show the light to moderate rain across the area while further North into the NE NJ and metro NYC area conditions continue on the raw side! Quite a bit of fog was notes as well on the latest visible fog satellite image...and the surface observations.

Temperatures were in the 40's to near 50 and the rather breezy and downright raw NE wind continues at 10-15 mph with the gusts from Ocean down to Cape May in the mid 20's.
Temperatures ranged from 38 at High Point to 54 at Lower Township and Wildwood.

Forecast Discussion through the Holiday Week

Today will remain cloudy as the precipitation of this morning exits off the coast. The winds will continue however from the North and Northeast as mid and surface level high pressure builds in. However the lower layers are still quite saturated from the rain that fell and the model guidance continues to show this inversion in place through today. Though there may be some breaks from the clouds later especially south..the brightening will be shallow as the weakening November sun will not have a great impact on burning through the low cloud deck or Fog. and the mid and upper level forcing is nil as well. Temperatures today will average in the low and middle 50's.

Tonight will be mainly cloudy as well as winds continue from the onshore and the moisture that has been in place remains trapped near the surface. Temperatures will be in the 40's. Then on Wednesday the all important travel day..we will have a potent upper low currently in the mid west head up toward the Great Lakes. Energy will continue to dive into the trough position to our West. Upper level flow is SW despite the Surface flow being off the ocean. As such ahead of the upper closed cold pool will be a shot of upper level warm air advection(a warm front) will be moving through the area on Wednesday afternoon. Light rain showers will develop but should not hinder flight departures or arrivals...Of course you should always check with your carrier .

Skies may break and brighten Wednesday afternoon especially across the central and southern regions of the Garden State. Temperatures will get into the upper 50's . Then the forecast gets tricky...Over the last several runs including this morning...the models have downplayed the intensity of a coastal storm. Not that this will not happen but it may not happen the way the earlier forecast indicated... I will explain.

there is a strong Disconnect between the two jet streams. The subtropical jet is anonymously in lower latitudes across Mexico and recurving of the SE Atlantic. The Polar jet is crossing the continental divide...diving down through the Midwest and lifting to offshore New England. This is important folks as there will not be a phasing solution of a coastal development in time for heavy rain here. So I am not expecting the impact of heavy rain on Friday morning...

What I am expecting is the following. The upper low over the Midwest will lift right through the area on Friday morning. It will be accompanied by a strong cold front Midnight Thanksgiving.. Low pressure off the Carolina coast will continue to move NE but the main threat from this system will be offshore. However the energy from this system will get partially infused along the front . As the front passes offshore and the upper low moves over us...strong lifting will occur and a period of rain will move through the area. The rain will develop out ahead of the front and then as the front passes after midnight Thanksgiving all area. One note here is that both models show variably different solutions. The one thing here that is more than likely correct is the fact that as the upper low moves offshore NJ it will swing negative as there is a lot of upper cold air about to rush over relatively warmer waters. A new surface low will deepen rapidly now off the New England coast . As the rain exits there is smaller disturbances within the NW flow that will enhance the chance of some rain showers mixing in with some snow showers as the atmosphere changes hands. This will be most likely in extreme NJ and the Poconos...at elevations higher than 1500 feet.

The winds will get busy from the west and NW and increase on Friday with mixed strong mixing and lighter rain chances will continue with temperatures dropping into the 40's and wind advisories may have to be issued. As strong low pressure deepens off the New England coastal waters. The cold air will rush to the coast and the rain that falls on Friday will be mixed with snow showers over hillier climbs. The mid level vort max will shift offshore on Saturday morning. the rain showers may turn to snow showers far northern sections before the precipitation shuts down. The winds will continue to crank as well and the temperatures will be dropping on Saturday night into the 30's North and near 40 central and south.

Saturday will see clearing skies with a partly sunny afternoon. Strong West West winds and temperatures struggling in the mid 40's with upper 30's extreme NW NJ and a mix of low cloud and sun. Clearing will commence Saturday night and Sunday will feature bright blue skies as high pressure surface and aloft builds in. Temperatures although quite chilly will be a bit milder as we loose the wind. ever the less they will range in the 40's to lower 50's southern Locations.

Generally fair weather will extend into Tuesday. High Cloudiness will increase on Monday night as a strong jet develops over E Canada in response to a deepening and closed off low pressure over the Mississippi valley. This low will then lift toward the St. Lawrence valley on Wednesday with increase in cloudiness Tuesday and rain developing Tuesday night and spreading rapidly up NJ Wednesday morning. As the surface low deepens and strong lifting occurs as the cold front moves offshore..A period of heavy rain will move through the entire area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

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