Rain Exits..Great Weather Reins Supreme this Weekend.. |GardenStateWeather.Com

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Waking Up Weather
Sunrise Monday 6:49AM/Sunset 4:35PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waxing Crescent Moon
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A cold front was passing through the Garden State metro areas before Dawn this morning and winds were shifting into the West/NW. The rain was also exiting stage east through the City and Connecticut and into Southern New England. We are expecting the winds to pick up for a while this morning and early afternoon and become breezy. Already at 5 AM we have a few locations gusting to near 20 MPH.

Temperatures ranged from 46 in Point Pleasant and 49 at High Point to 63 in Wildwood... in between most locations were in the 50's to near 60. Ahead of the front where it was raining in Central Park and Kennedy Airport..winds were still from the SW and breezy .. The fog and rain in these locations will improve over the next several hours..from west to East across Long island.

Forecast Discussion through the weekend and Next Week

A highly amplified pattern still remains in the general set up over the Contiguous USA into the end of November. The details from model guidance on sensible weather and placement and strength of surface high and low pressure and frontal structures as well as precipitation is still in the lower confidence side of the scale, however.

But first let's begin with what we do know in the short range and extrapolate out in time into Thanksgiving and beyond...

Temperatures over the weekend will be near or slightly above climo averages. The weather will be good also. High pressure will build in and remain in control of our weather across the Garden State through Sunday. Cloudiness will begin to increase Sunday afternoon and rain will more than likely be in the offing for Monday. The high pressure will keep the winds busy early today and then subside this evening.. Skies will become partly to mostly sunny this afternoon. Temperatures will rise into the lower and mid 60's. Tonight will be clear to Partly cloudy and temperatures will fall under light NW flow into the 30's to mid 40's.

Saturday will be a beauty with sunshine and fair weather scattered clouds and readings in the 50's.. Sunday both model guidance suggest sun to start and then clouds roll in or shall I say up into the area. The current model guidance has weakened it's solution a bit in terms of a coastal storm on Monday..however an inverted low along the mid Atlantic coast will move up into the are with rain developing..The rain may begin Sunday night across the Delmarva and southern NJ and head up toward the city and Eastern Jersey Before Dawn on Monday.

Low pressure will move up the Delmarva and head offshore as High pressure gives sway over the New England coastal waters. Monday will remain cloudy as precipitation winds down in the western sections early and low clouds and light rain coastal and eastern sections slowly throughout the day. High pressure and clearing will be with us for a short break on Tuesday before the next upper low and trough over the upper mid west heads for the Great lakes..
from here on out sensible weather into the holiday and beyond is going to be difficult to nail at this juncture.

Being 1 week away from the big American Holiday..the models in the large scale are accounting for an active pattern and 2 streams.. The major and active one will be the pacific jet which will continue to fire hose storm systems riding up and over the ridge of high pressure along the NW USA coast into Canada and then diving down through the upper mid west and lifting North into the Great Lakes. The problems arise with the southern branch and where these upper lows cut off in the Midwest and how much interaction the energy can tap along the subtropical jet and along the east coast. One thing is for sure. The question marks of apparent weather are blaring..

The low pressure forecast to be on the heels of Mondays system by Wednesday will already be east Of Hudson's Bay Canada with a weakening front to our west and the main trough axis too. This keeps our area on the east and milder side with fair weather Wednesday. Things may turn though on Thanksgiving as a strong upper trough and energy continue to develop a trough over the Midwest. Meanwhile the baroclinic boundary of moisture will continue over the Atlantic coastal waters from the gulf stream up to offshore the Western Atlantic. As the strong upper low tilts negative and pumps up the jet structure over the Eastern US coast..upper level convergence may develop a coastal low over southern New England and save Us from the weather just in time as it bombs out over Maine on Friday. This will send the precipitation shield out of our area and the result will be a collapse in temperatures and a steepening NW flow of air on Friday..

Beyond this is wish casting...and until we actually get data into the future model runs things are going to run amuck in terms of actual weather details. SO I will leave this for now and revisit over the weekend...

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