Are The prospects for Snow still on the Table for this Weekend? |GardenStateWeather.Com

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Waking Up Weather
Sunrise Today 7:13 AM/Sunset 4:30PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waning Crescent Moon
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Good Morning! Fog was taking over many observation sites in the Garden State at 4 Am this morning. Winds were calm and skies were generally cloudy and the low cloud obscuring visibilities down to 1/4 to 1/32 mile in Eastern PA and 3/4 of a mile in spots over areas in Southern NJ .. Temperatures were in the upper 30's to upper 40's and ranged from 35 in Walpack and 36 at High Point and Wantage to 48 at Wildwood and 49 in Atlantic City.

This morning's surface analysis shows the leading edge of Arctic air approaching.. Little rain is with the front but the air behind it will be another smack in the face...what with the wind and wind chill a coming....the front was getting into Western NY and Western PA down through Mississippi and through the Heart Of Texas. Strong Polar High Pressure with Arctic and Canadian Origins was sprawling from Manitoba to Texas and slowly building East. Rain was building in offshore Texas Gulf Coast into the SE ..Showers were struggling ahead of the Arctic front in PA Snow was falling over the UP of Michigan into Michigan..

Forecast Discussion through the Weekend and Beyond

The Weather boards and chat rooms have been lit on fire as each Run of the GFS models potential storm looms large for the East Coast this weekend. The PARA(new model which I believe actually becomes the new operational model of this suite today replacing the older set of algorithms is wavering back and forth with key issues the ECMWF model seems to have a more solid ground with.

In fact even the ensemble means in the 8-14 day range between the two models offer vastly different solutions in terms of the extent ..location of key upper air pressure patterns over the Conterminous USA. The images can be seen below in the extended range in this forecast...
would not be surprised by the changing of key features over the next several days . This is often common in Winter. Regardless of the daily changes, we can not or should not hinge every forecast this far out on the Model's as being the Bible of Sensible Weather...but using meteorology and the current set up to see what potentials are there and how these will all play out!

Before I get into all of this.. let's get back to the changes that are now taking place. 1. An arctic front will pass this afternoon ...west and NW winds will increase as the colder air slips in aloft and works it's way down to the surface on increasing West and NW winds tonight into Thursday! The winds will increase as the result of low pressure building into a large cut off upper level low in Se Canada. At the same time Polar High Pressure with a flow Origin from Deep over Snow Pack in Canada will continue to press South and east encompassing all of the East Coast for the second half of this week...save the SE and the gulf as this is where the Subtropical Jet stream lies nd will be the focus of New storminess passing and then redeveloping offshore the Mid Atlantic this weekend.

The key to all of this lies in the exact upper air features. Short Waves moving South around the deepening upper low in Canada will help to carve out the trough of much colder air in the East. At the same time by the weekend as High pressure moves offshore...low pressure will develop off the East Coast as a result there are 2 possibilities ... aren't there always. Either the two streams..the polar and subtropical phase and pull the Low and deepen it to our 40 North and 72 West Bench Mark with snow on Sunday or the pieces do not meet and the southern System moves further offshore as we are left in the arctic chill with nothing other than more cold later Sunday and a reintroducing shot of arctic air early Next Week.

The negative NAO block with Higher than average heights over Greenland retrogresses back toward Canada. This forces the upper low to shift east to over Atlantic Canada... The energy diving through the trough sets the stage for a neutral vort rounding the base and heading for the Mid Atlantic. Once this reaches the East coast it grabs the surface reflection developing off the SE coast and phases the streams pulling the storm North and deepening it into a monster Sunday night into Monday Morning with rapid pressure falls an expanding precipitation along the Coast. The key here folks is where the phasing and surface features will be... Not only is this important it is the fdiffernce between an all out Snow storm for some and very little to noithing for the rest.... I am going to monitor and will be looking at these key issues throughout the week. That is why you must pay attention here..because slight changes especially in the closer time frames will make all the difference...

I want to point out that this weekend is the final shopping weekend before Christmas. while I am not expecting poor weather Saturday ...Sunday into monday could become quite changeable from now through the end of the week. The forecasts are going to be all over the place and it is way to early to nail down specifics ...and anything other than this discussion would be wish casting. i am focusing in on this storm potential and will keep you all informed of my thinking throughout the week..

So here is a brief breakdown of what you can expect at this point...
After some light rain or drizzle and fog this morning skies will break during the afternoon.. Winds will sjhift to the Nw and increase to 15-20 mph toward evening with gusts to near 30.. Temperatures will begin to peak then fall this afternoon.

Tonight and Wednesday the cold air will make for a partly cloudy sky with more cloud and snow flurries or snow showers over Northern and Hillier Sections.. Temperatures will drop into the 20's and near freezing in many locations overnight with a few 30's by Dawn Wednesday elsewhere. Winds NW 15-20 guts beyond 25 mph...

Temperatures tumble into the teens Wednesday night with breezy NW Winds making it feel like the lower single digits in the coldest spots...bundle UP!

Sunny and brisk Thursday and Friday with strong gusts of NW wind on Thursday relaxing Friday.. Temperatures striggling from the upper 20's and lower 30's both Days especially over NW NJ.

Saturday Sunny ..increasing clouds at night! Temperatures in the 30's.

Question Marks on Sunday into Monday will be answered as we get closer to the period.

6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)