Cold Predominates with another Arctic blast Tuesday Onward!

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Waking Up Weather

Sunrise Today 7:10 AM/Sunset 4:29PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waning Crescent Moon

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Good Morning all! I hope everyone settled down for a cold winter's Night sleep with the heat turned up and the covers deep. Because we are on a trip into the arctic cold for a while ahead!

The surface freeze line runs along the coastline from Maine to North Carolina then curves inland south cutting through the central portions of the SE States right through the heart of Texas ..through most of New Mexico! and up through Arizona into eastern Central and Northern California then up along the West Coast to Washington and Oregon. That folks is a cold Country Indeed! Temperatures in our immediate area were under that umbrella with single digits across PA and teens in Northern NJ. High Point NJ was the low point with 12 degrees at 4 AM and West Cape may at 29. Winds were still up from the West gusting in the 20's adding to the Wind Chills which were in the single digits. Do you know anyone in Mt. Pocono? how about 11 degrees with a west wind of 22 gusting to 28 and a wind chill of -8... Put the coffee On.. I have a long read this morning!

Nationally, plenty of clear skies were over most of the Nation from the NE through The Tennessee Valley. High pressure will continue to build east over the next 24 hours currently centered over Tennessee. Lake effect snow continues into Western NY as lake waters are in the 40's and the West winds are carrying that warm air over the top of Arctic air downwind in the Western Shores Of NY from off lake Erie and lake Ontario..

Forecast Discussion through the Weekend

Fair and cold weather will continue through Saturday morning here in the Garden State. Our next weather maker along the southern Jet stream is lining up over Mexico and will move east to off the Mid Atlantic coast late Saturday. High pressure will supply us with fair weather as it builds east and the axis moves off the coast on Saturday Morning . Broken cloudiness(partly cloudy will be the general rule North and Sunny(clear southern NJ today as debris clouds from off the Great lakes scuttles by our Northern Neighbors. Winds will continue to be up as well diminishing slowly. but just under wind advisory criteria. Non the less it will be the coldest day of the season thus far withe MOS MET and MAV numbers in the upper 20's to below freezing.

The strong upper jet to our North (the result of low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure building in from the west) will be exiting on Saturday. Under this jet the low and mid level winds will be strong and some of those winds will continue to mix down to the surface through Tonight. As high pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic Saturday..a warming profile will build in as SW winds aloft and surface push es up warmer air from the South. Relatively speaking temperatures that start off in the teens and low 20's tonight will rebound into the 30's on Saturday afternoon. Cloudiness will be increasing Saturday afternoon and skies will become cloudy overnight into Sunday Morning.

A contrast zone of sorts will set up on Sunday as temperatures across the Northern Part of NJ will be in the 30's with 50's and low 50's coastal and South jersey. Southeast winds will become more easterly across Northern NJ and the NYC area Sunday afternoon as low pressure depicted on the models moves off or very near the North Carolina coast . Precipitation likely in the form of snow will be falling aloft and may not reach the ground while low levels continue to warm. By the time the precipitation begins Sunday afternoon it will likely be rain..but I cannot rule out snowflakes or a period of light snow at the onset..as a strong mid and low level jet pushes the warm air advection right over the NYC metro areas. Most of the wind will probably not mix down except along the coast where thermally there is the largest contrast between air and sea temperature spreads.

As the low lifts through or offshore the NY and LI area a period of moderate rain will likely cross the state into the NYC area Sunday evening. Got plans for the Giants at the stadium Sunday? bring the Umbrellas! A cold front will push through Sunday evening and push the precipitation offshore. NW winds will clear the skies out Monday before a strong Arctic blast gets here for Tuesday!

Monday will be the break as well as Tuesday but Tuesday will feature more clouds and warmer temperatures ahead of the arctic front. Temperatures with Sunshine Monday will get into the upper 30's and mid 40's. Falling back into the 20's and low 30's Monday night and a warm front pushes north over the area Tuesday morning..over the dome of cold fresh air in place some light snow may again break out with strong isentropic lift over the Northern NJ/NYC area. As the warm front moves North and out ahead of the arctic front yet to pass through rain showers will then become likely as temperatures rise through the 40's.

The front will push through Tuesday evening with falling temperatures on increasing Strong NW winds. As the air cools rapidly aloft some of the lighter precipitation left over may turn back to snow or snow showers as the upper level vort and jet max move overhead. The upper low and a piece of the polar vortex sends the stom packing over Northern New England and then due to upstream blocking over Greenland it positions the low over the Western North Atlantic for the foreseeable Future. Downstream this leads to upper level confluence between rising heights over the Mid West and a strong and deep Arctic trough over the NE USA..

This is where the modeling becomes a bit hung up but the general idea folks is that this trough and the part and parcel of the Polar vortex sets up the NAO(North American Oscillation) blocking over the eastern USA. Under this block the arctic air is forced to remain over and locked in to the NE USA. While under this domain.. temperatures will be below average..with generally fair weather and a breezy NW flow on Wednesday and Thursday and Friday. Impulses within the flow will transition over us and each passing will steepen the chilly arctic airmass that is already in place.

So you see folks, temperatures here are going to be struggling in the 30's to near 40 Wednesday and by Thursday once again getting out of the 20's to near freezing with a NW flow is going to be nearly impossible! Temperatures will continue to struggle on Friday as well to get much above freezing and actually strong lake effect snows will develop on Thursday in Upstate NY .

6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

Below average confidence in the daily weather in the mid term. Stronger confidence in the overall upper air pattern as a deep trough and Arctic air occupies the Eastern US with the greatest temperature departures the further south one goes. Even Florida which has been basking in toasty 80's will be saying Goodbye from this as we head into the middle and later dates in December.

Is there a strom that comes along and moves offshore the mid Atlantic before Christmas? ell the modeling in a large degree has benn hitting on this fr the past several days and while the details nd data supporting this are obviously out of the forecasting specific timeframe...the idea is ripe for such an event to occur! The placement of many things is still in the unknown..but the ideas on the table presented here are that 1. Expect the cold weather to remain. 2. Expect the models outside of 72 hours to be rather useless on details in sensible storm tracks and locations given the pattern and performance of late.

We will just have to continue to monitor the evolving trends as the indexes are all pointing to trouble.. The NAO is in the Tank the Arctic Oscillation is in the tank..the kelvin wavein the pacific is still transitioning into the pacific ..this is helping to modify the jet structure over North America with a positive PNA( strong ridging West Coast...Strong and Deep trough East coast)...A blocking pattern -NAO with warming over Greenland and part of the Polar Vortex repositioning itself over SE Canada.

All these teleconnections are leading down the road to a wide opening and soberingly cold smack in the face. Sometimes when the indexes are in flux or gently shifting will come a snapping of the atmospheric rubberband and a storm is not out of the realm of possibility. The fact that the forecasted NAO while still negative now and deeply so will be edging back up to less deep value as we get closer to the exquinox does bode well for a interaction of the polar and subtropical jet streams to meet up and bombs away dream babies a storm looms large out there around or before Christmas... The details will continue to be monitored.

8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts

8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)