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December 5th Fun

Live Blog Tonight Begins at 7:30 PM Check into gardenstateweather and I will have the live chat up to answer your questions and give you some upcoming graphics on the week and month ahead and general weather discussion...
the live chat will be up and running at 7:30.. I look forward to hearing from some of you out there!!!
Today's Graphics... Click on Images To Enlarge
Waking Up Weather
Sunrise Today 7:04 AM/Sunset 4:29PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waning Gibbous Moon
Watches Warnings and Advisories click on the link ( currently active)

Precipitation is rapidly overspreading the area from South to North This morning. Temperatures are near freezing with 29 at Walpack up to 46 in Atlantic City. Rain is the primary precipitation type currently with some frozen echos developing over Northern NJ pressing North through the Hudson valley...Dew points were falling off...and temperatures will continue to drop from here on out. The transition to snow will continue from North to South as the day progresses and the precipitation could get heavy from the Delmarva up to offshore LI and CT this afternoon and evening as the low off the Carolina coast moves east of Montauk Point and an upper level vort max moves off the Mid Atlantic coast...shifting and ending the precipitation late tonight.

Since the ground is warm..the snow will have a hard time sticking ..but will overcome this on non paved surfaces..and eventually the roads in spots as well especially areas that are over 1000 feet in elevation and you know who you are right? The rain snow line will be a gradual shift and may not occur in the coastal communities until evening as ocean temperatures in the mid 50's fight the colder incoming air aloft... the lowest 1000 feet or several hundred feet could make the difference of who sees rain to snow closer to sea level. But for all you residents 1000 feet approximately and up...your change over should occur sooner and the duration lasting longer!

Ne winds at the surface and SW winds aloft will continue to increase and become gusty late this afternoon as well over coastal locations and in and around the NYC area as the low intensifies and the upper level jet max moves through.

SO be careful out there today and enjoy the falling snow...as the sun sets the snow will begin to stick and the intensity increase before the entire event winds down late tonight. travel this evening will be fine but icy spots will quickly develop into Sunday morning as the temperatures fall back into the 20;s and the residual moisture freezes... Remember that black ICE!!!!

Forecast Discussion through Next Week

I will get into all of this tonight I do not have the time this morning! My thoughts from Yesterday however in this period have not changed.. I would like to talk about the subtle model changes here but I am running late and have not time this morning....If you read yesterdays and look at the indices in the graphics below you know what i am thinking... At least i hope you do! I will be doing a live presentation on this tonight beginning at 7:30 PM right here live on the blog.
6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)
8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts


8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

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Station ICAO:

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NAM Off hr NAM (6 or 18Z) NAM (from 40km grid at 3hr interval) off hr NAM (from 40km grid at 3hr interval) New 5km WRF (Eastern Window) 00 and 12Z NAM - Severe wx Parameters Only RUC2 - Severe wx Parameters Only GFS - Worldwide Stations 6 or 18Z - CONUS Only MRF SREF Probabilities NHC Sfc Wind Speed Probabilities - back on (6/2/2007) GFS Sfc Parameters - Worldwide Stations NAM Sfc Parameters - (out to 84hr, @3hr Intveral) off hr NAM Sfc Parameters - (out to 84hr, @3hr Intveral) Station ICAO:

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1000-500mb Thickness/6hr Precip, SLP 500mb GPH, TMP, Vort, and Winds 850mb GPH, TMP, RH, Winds 700mb GPH, TMP, RH, Winds Accump Precip (n/a for 00hr) SLP, Tmp, Dpt Fcst Base Reflectivity (n/a for 00hr)

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