Mild Today and Tuesday then Windy and COLD second Half of the week |GardenStateWeather.Com

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Waking Up Weather
Sunrise Today 7:12 AM/Sunset 4:29PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waning Crescent Moon
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Good Morning! A few advisories are still up addressing black ice. However temperatures are rising from above freezing to the lower and mid 40's. The winds are calm or lighter out of the West/NW but skies are either clear across Southern NJ or mostly cloudy everywhere else. There was some fog being reported especially over extreme Southern NJ and the Delmarva...otherwise just low cloudiness. Temperatures ranged from 33 at Hope in Northern NJ to 43 in North Arlington...Harrison and Newark..and all the way down in West Cape May...

There is nothing falling from the sky on radar and the latest surface analysis shows low pressure that passed yesterday was off the Southern New England coast Se of Maine and high pressure was centered over the Carolina's. The big change is deepening low pressure over Missouri...this will be part of our weather maker on Tuesday late. Not so much for the rain but the change back from the relatively mild air of today and Tuesday.

Forecast Discussion through the Week Ahead

Today and Tuesday will be the mild days of the week so any thin snow cover that remains will likely be completely melted..by Thursday and Friday a very Gusty wind and cold Arctic air will once again be over the Garden State. National temperatures this Monday Am range from 72 in Miami...to -19 at Great Falls Montana.. and if you think that's cold how about 26 below in Saskatoon or 17 below in Winnipeg.. Well some or a piece of this fresh arctic air will get in here after Tuesday afternoon as the arctic front comes through.

A second trough or cold front will come through Wednesday reinforcing the fridged and windy air mass in place through Friday. There will be mix of sun and clouds from Wednesday through Friday especially North as Low pressure deepens over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure builds in from the West. The thermal and pressure gradient will likely lead to wind advisories where we can get sustained winds here from just under 20 mph gusting up to the 30's especially Wednesday evening into Thursday as that second shot comes through.
Most of the lift and associated precipitation(likely in the form of light snow)will remain North of us.. However there could be some precipitation that makes it here either with the front itself on Tuesday Morning or again with the strongest jet max passing overhead Wednesday morning.
Could be some light snow flurries North as the cold air rushes in from downwind Lake Erie...

Otherwise winds subside Thursday afternoon as high pressure builds towards the Mid Atlantic coast. As mentioned temperatures will struggle..later in the week but today and Tuesday will see reading approach the mid and upper 40's with more cloudiness North ahead of upstream warm air advection in advance of the Arctic front and low pressure over Missouri Riding up toward the Great Lakes... to mainly sunny skies over Southern NJ. Skies will become cloudy everywhere tonight and temperatures will decouple to mid 30's Northwest to the lower 40's coast and southern NJ.

Temperatures under cloudy skies and a fresh SW wind on Tuesday will approach 60 in Southern NJ and in the low to mid 50's elsewhere. Winds will become west and then NW during the afternoon as the front passes with little precipitation. Skies will clear off Wednesday Morning with some lower clouds moving in for a scattered sky over Northern NJ during the late morning and Wednesday afternoon with NW winds increasing and temperatures running in the 30's to near 40. Snow showers will be out there too over NW NJ and hillier terrain of Orange and Putnam and the Hudson Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday...

Thursday and Friday will be mainly Sunny with lighter winds and the coldest of temperatures running in the 30's most everywhere in NJ.

Things turn interesting for the weekend. The closed upper low over SE Canada and the maritimes is blocked off by High Pressure over Greenland. This now folks is truly a Negative NAO block (North Atlantic Oscillation) this 50/50 then spins in it's 50 North and 50 West position over SE Canada while arctic air continues to drop south into the Deep Trough over the Eastern USA. As the Positive Negative Oscillation continues to aid this all along and off the West Coast with the Sub Aleutian Low and our downstream Ridge extending from SW Canada to Mexico.

AN upper trough will increase the cloud cover Friday night and whats interesting according to the models at this point is southern stream energy arriving from low pressure develops off the Mid Atlantic coast and the two areas phase offshore the Northern Mid Atlantic on Sunday. We could have a light snow episode around here on Sunday. A lot is still uncertain in this pattern going forward. For one the polar Vortex will undulating right over Southeastern Canada and the New England states through the extended period then lifting and repositioned it self over the NW Canadian Atlantic the week of Christmas.

A lot of what transpires before then and after then will have to be dealt with on a storm by storm basis as the data gets into a better collection rich area. In the large scale we will remain below Normal in temperatures as mentioned in Saturday's Blog here for the remainder of the Month. Not historic cold but cold none the less. The highly amplified and blocking pattern may tend to break a bit near or after Christmas. this perhaps would be the best time to see a storm possibly a Nor'easter...

Now do not get all wrapped up in the models this far out...look at the pattern overall and the teleconnections which are strongly arguing for these changes to occur. Whether your Christmas or New Years is white is an unknown..the pattern is pointing to cold and very cold conditions. We will have to monitor the upper features and interactions between the 3 jet streams and surface pressure patterns over the weeks ahead to be able to nail down specifics of sensible weather.

I will be monitoring of course!

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