Pattern Changes for Mid Month on The Way |GardenStateWeather.Com

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Waking Up Weather
Sunrise Today 7:04 AM/Sunset 4:29PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waning Gibbous Moon
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TGIF. Good Morning all! Clear skies and a light west to NW flow of air surrounds the Garden State this morning. Pressures continue to rise just above 30.00 inches and temperatures were in the 30's to mid 40's.Temperatures ranged from 29 in Sparta to 46 in Wildwood.

Snow continued to fall over SW Texas as this is part of our weather system for Saturday. The other area of precipitation was developing over SE Texas Gulf coast and rain spreading in across Northern Florida and Se Florida from off the Gulf. Light snow was falling in and around the Great Lakes. Flow aloft is SW and high cloudiness from this jet will increase the cloud cover here later today.

Forecast Discussion through Next Week

Certainly by most accounts, the weather will be getting more interesting if not more winter like over the week ahead. First off the questions and concerns of Saturday afternoon and evening weighs heavy on many readers minds out there so I will dive into this area first and move on to a potential stormy period for mid week ahead.

A positively tilted trough extending from low pressure in Canada to an upper low over the SW will eject east today. The trough will begin to sharpen in amplitude as it makes it's way toward the east coast. The two areas of precipitation I just mentioned ove Texas and over Florida will be rapidly spreading Northeast tonight. The reason is we have a very strong and increasing jet running from the SW USA to off thee Mid Atlantic and NE USA.. Low pressure will develop offshore the mid Atlantic today and lift to offshore southern New England by Saturday night. Model guidance although it has shifted back a Little to the Coast(westward shift) (typical in models as storm periods get closer to unfolding)..the main areas where the greatest precipitation will fall will be over the Ocean South and east and we will remain on the Western Fringe.

Now there is also a shortwave (upper vertical velocity field) that will be moving in from the aforementioned trough Saturday night. This will provide decent frontogenetic forcing to the left(inland of where the surface low pressure area will be located..(over the ocean). We will also be seeing surface winds turn to the North while upper level winds are blowing in hard and fast from the SW. Precipitation should begin during the afternoon. However i cautioned yesterday that this precipitation could be tempered for a while as dew points cool off. This evaporate cooling will likely begin to cool the column down. Most model output including the NAM See's the change from Light rain to Snow.. The problem here is not the actual availability of cold air ..the placement of the low and the very fast flow coupled with water temperatures in the mid 50's.

With no true blocking high to the North and a very strong jet structure.. A glancing blow but snow non the less will be likely on Saturday into Saturday evening North and west of 1-95 and rain transitioning to snow as it ends to the coast. Temperatures will be running above freezing in many locations as the cold air bleeds in Saturday afternoon. Many locations will not see accumulating snow.. Perhaps interior Connecticut and that would be Saturday night as the low moves away. The interior, while snow is falling the boundary is too warm and the precipitation too light to accumulate. There will be a better likelihood of snow on colder surfaces as winds increase toward evening and a few patches in the road corners..It may become slippery Saturday evening as the sun goes down and the cold air comes in. Ever here of Black ICE!!!!
you can easily be fooled and the first snow on the ground however light can create motor vehicle accidents.. So if you plans include driving Saturday night...just be aware to the fact that it is snow crystals and that slush you go over can and will turn to ice...

Skies will clear off Saturday night as everything moves out of the forecast area to be replaced by high pressure moving in and a cold Sunday morning. Ice will lay on the ground and any residual snow will be exiting stage left. temperatures will be in the 20's to the 30's. NW winds and sunshine will make for colder day with highs generally below climo in the 30's to near 40. High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Monday.

Another disturbance crossing Se Canada will send a weak warm front through the area Later Monday.. Clouds will increase and there is a slight chance for some rain showers Monday night ...otherwise skies will clear for Tuesday. Upper level blow backs to the SW ahead of next complex Storm system that will likely provide more weather headaches to forecasters on Wednesday. The ideas from yesterday have not changed all that much..but modeling and teleconnections all point to a major change in the pattern once this new Storm comes through.
Clouds will increase on Tuesday and low pressure will deepen over the Mid West on it's track towards the Great Lakes... A common denominator of storm tracks this season thus far!

But hold the presses! this is all about to change! This storm will likely begin to influence the pattern change for the second half of the month. A wealth of moisture and an increasing jet structure all levels out ahead of this will rush the rain North on Wednesday... The rain may be heavy on Wednesday and the winds will increase as well.. The front will be slow to move through and there is hinting of triple point low pressure developing along the front as it passes offshore Wednesday night and early Thursday. Cold air will rush in the wake of this storm and make for windy and cold conditions with clearing skies Thursday afternoon.

What comes after is the coldest air of the season this far..As the Pacific changes lead to a strong realignment of the polar vortex over Canada. this vortex will shift east and South and allow very cold air to push south and east in the eastern USA. This trough of true polar air will make for temperatures in the 30's on Friday and perhaps next Saturday as well...

Where we go from here is uncertain as the ensembles and the operational models are hinting that the strong negative A and NAO are going to do their dirty work and the pattern change and shift is going to occur. Stay tuned as I get into all of this over the weekend.

I will be live on this blog Saturday night! I will be allowing and setting up live chat around 7Pm Saturday night so check in and we can chat and if you have questions ..this would be a great time to speak with me...

Lots of FUN awaits!!!!

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