Posted by
Robert Smith
at
Sunday, January 31, 2010
Interesting Reads
Today's Graphics... Click on Images To Enlarge
| Watches and Warnings/Traffic and Airport Delays Sunrise Today 7:08AM/Sunset 5:12PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waning Gibbous Moon
  Big changes are afoot in the weather pattern and forecast over the area this upcoming week and will likely hold a large impact on actual weather.The depiction to your immediate Right is the GFS model output from this mornings run which takes a very strong and deepening coastal low off the NC coast once again. However , like this past weekend's event, the details on future images not shown here show the system moving due east with the large extent and Northward expansion of the low's track and precipitation output to be offshore . This could be another example where the model guidance at this early stage does not have a full handle on track and intensity.
There are a number of variables here that will need to be answered and if this past Saturday night along the Washington DC to Coastal NJ shore was any example of the micro physics and dynamical environmental variables like thermal gradients along the immediate coast, then we are going to be in for a bumpy ride over the week ahead as far as guidance goes.
What you should be coming away with here is not the specific output as verbatim,but rather the overall synoptic pattern that can lead to the event this upcoming weekend again. Be rest assured the model guidance has a very active pattern set forth this early in the game and no doubt the consensus is pointing to a Mid Atlantic coastal storm. The phasing and interaction of the polar and subtropical branches at the same time as the departure or weakening of the Polar vortex seen on the ECMWF image above over New Brunswick Canada holds the key to the idea that the storm could pull further North rather than east and that my friends, is the big concern and has been with the past two events.
The other issues as far as precipitation type and intensity will have to be ironed out as the storm systems get into better RAOB collecting regions of the guidance this week. The idea espoused from all guidance suggest an argument for time..and thermal interactions and where the surface and mid level track boundaries will lye. I will no doubt be very busy this week ahead as all of this unfolds.
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8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts
8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)
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