Good Morning. Well I guess we have a split decision in the groundhog's forecast with LI Chuck seeing Spring on the way soon and Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow and 6 more weeks of Winter. My forecast is based on Science and what lies before us is still Winter, and Winter is what you are waking up to this morning . Light snow continues to push off to the east and the Advisories will be dropped by 7AM as it does so. Overall there is a 1-3 inch total with the heavier bands across the Southern areas. Low pressure off the NC Coast will continue to pull away today.
Light snow was falling at my wakeup hour at 4 AM across a large portion of Eastern NJ down through Delaware. by 6Am it is now pushing rapidly offshore. Another area of snow was over PA downwind the Great Lakes as a result of the Northern Trough yet to swing through thisafternoon. The usual speed restrictions are set on the bridges..tunnels and turnpikes but no major incidents on the roadways yet...but do be careful this morning. Already seeing some slip and slides out there on the traffic reports across the area and as commuters make their way out onto the roads..more will be coming in. There are also no delays at the airports... Traffic and Airport Delays can be found by clicking on the links.
Temperatures were in the 20's North and Central and then into upto the freezing mark elsewhere...The range at 6 AM was 21 in High Point to 33 in Atlantic City... and winds were under 10mph from the North with fog being reported at many stations.
Forecast Discussion through The Week and into Next Week
Today will feature more cloud then sun as a result of 2 systems..The first moving further offshore the Carolina's and ending the rapidly rightward moving edge of the precipitation offshore this morning. The second upper trough and front over NY State will slide through southern New England this afternoon. Temperatures will be seasonable with readings in the upper 30's to around 40. Breaks in the overcast with clearing will be evident tonight as temperatures drop into upper teens and lower 20's.
Fair weather will continue through Thursday as High pressure builds over the area. Mainly sunny skies on Thursday with temperatures near seasonal levels near the upper 30's to near 40.
Clouds will increase Friday from South to North with Southern sections getting into the overcast early on as a large storm begins to pull out from the Gulf coast states. A strong agreement as seen in all models in the upper features are coming together for a winter storm threat over the Mid Atlantic and also will be impacting the NJ/NYC metro areas on Saturday. First off will be the very active subtropical branch which already over Mexico and Texas this morning is fueling a large area of rain from the Gulf of Texas through New Mexico. This will be moving East Northeast as a strong disturbance in the Northern Stream phases over the Tennessee Valley Saturday Morning.
This will rapidly intensify and deepen a surface low offshore NC on Saturday. As such the guidance envelope of track and speed coupled with the intensifying mid and low level lift and frontogenetic forces will push a wealth of precipitation up through the Virginia's and Delaware to the Central and east Coastal communities of NJ and into the Five Boroughs of NYC and LI on Saturday as snow spreads up Overnight into Saturday Morning and continues throughout the day. The storm will continue to deepen and model guidance is suggesting a very strong banding and intensifying jet along the Delaware and NJ coastlines on Saturday. This area will see a increase in very strong E/SE winds aloft while the mid and low levels continue in a East/NE flow. The winds are progged to increase and as the precipitation(mainly in the form of Snow ) continues to increase in intensity..overall a widespread moderate to heavy snowfall is now becoming more likely across the area. In addition as strong winds and precipitation increases near whiteout or blizzard like conditions may impact the area especially along the immediate Central and Southern NJ coast.
There will likely be impacts from the warming aloft on the onshore flow as the low closes off offshore and deepens during Saturday. There could be issues with precipitation type especially over Coastal SE NJ where the last 2 systems had snow..the amount of warming aloft will likely have a mixing of precipitation types going back over to all snow before tapering down and ending Saturday night. The forecast will be a challenging one where Northern Sections above 1-80 and 287 into the Hudson valley will be on the northern fringes but also the thermal thickness will support all snow in these areas. In fact Most of where the heavier banded snow begins to take shape over Coastal Monmouth down to Philadelphia and DE will have to be monitored as strong lift and rapidly cooling air in the deformation area will support moderate to heavy snow for these locations especially Saturday Morning. This again may lead to near white out conditions with blowing and drifting.
The determination of snow amounts will be considered a final call later on Thursday as guidance suggests the closest track and thermal features. Rest assured Saturday is going to be a rough travel day complete with strong coastal winds ..heavy Precipitation and Moderate to locally heavy embedded snowfall across many locations of the TRI State area.. especially over Philadelphia and the Northern DE Valley into NJ. Temperatures will be running in the mid and upper 20's Interior North and NYC area Saturday and near or above freezing Southern sections and the Delmarva. This coupled with mid level temperature dew points below freezing will support a moderate to locally heavy snowfall across the area. Rough estimates could range in the 6-12 inch category across Northern NJ and the NYC area with over a foot of snow where the strongest banding forms across coastal and southern NJ communities.
This is a rough estimate now based on GFS model output. This is not a forecast yet in finite form..but the consensus here is beginning to show that the surface low will be closer to the coast and further North. This is going to be one wet and wintry forecast and the first major snowfall of the year thus far. Coastal flooding and some beach erosion is still a possibility that will have to be considered on Saturday along the coast as the strong onshore flow continues to build.
After the storm exits clearing will commence Sunday with fair weather forecast through Monday and Early Tuesday before another Northern Stream system with some Subtropical branch influence makes it's way across the areas Tuesday night into Wednesday. Again we could be looking at light amounts of snow.
Things to say the least will be interesting on Saturday and if all goes at progged...then you can bet travel will all be hampered . For some who know my day schedule..it will be impossible for me to cover this storm in live updates... but depending on how busy my work schedule is Saturday, I will try to have the live event up and running and I will of course gear the site up for the event with everything you need to know.
With snow pack and clearing Sunday on NW Winds expect the temperatures to be in the teens to low 20's across the interior and remain in the 20's elsewhere. More to come throughout today and Tonight. 6-10 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)
8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts
8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)
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