Snowstorm Saturday.. Chance of Snow Next Wednesday |GardenStateWeather.Com

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Morning model guidance continues to track the coastal storm a bit further south but still within the benchmark. changes seens in the SREF and NAM/WRF do not appear to change the impact..so the forecast at this time remains unchanged. The sharp cut off of precipitation is noted on the NAM with extreme NW Nj not showing very much snow...but Cape May and Atlantic City showing the potential for over a foot and a Half. This will be a tight storm with the slightest of storm track varying buy location. I will continue to monitor the trends and will be issuing a live coverage update beginning tomorrow as time permits.

THE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING AND WAS EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE NORTHAMPTON, WARREN, AND MORRIS COUNTIES. WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE WINDS HOWLING OUT OF THE EAST TO
NORTHEAST, A BLIZZARD WARNING WAS RAISED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES
IN NEW JERSEY EXCEPT FOR MONMOUTH AND KENT AND SUSSEX IN DELAWARE.

Waking Up Weather/ Watches and Warnings/Traffic and Airport Delays
Sunrise Today 7:06AM/Sunset 5:16PM. (West Orange Civil Time)Waning Gibbous Moon

Clear to Partly cloudy skies greet you r sunrise this morning and temperatures are in the upper 20's to low 30's with winds out of the NW and gusty as well making for wind chill values in the upper teens to mid 20's. High pressure extended from the Lake Winnipeg through Minnesota down through Ohio and South Carolina. Our big storm developing in the Gulf of Texas spreading it's shield of Precipitation into Wyoming along the front Range of the Rockies down through Kansas..Oklahoma..Texas.. Missouri..Arkansas.. Louisiana ...Alabama..Georgia..Mississippi..well you get the drift! A very big impacting storm that I will break down for you in terms of impact in a minute. Winter Storm Watches are up for Hunterdon; Somerset; Middlesex; Western Monmouth; Eastern Monmouth; Mercer; Salem; Gloucester; Camden; Northwestern Burlington; Ocean; Cumberland; Atlantic; Cape May; Atlantic Coastal Cape May; Coastal Atlantic; Coastal Ocean; Southeastern Burlington counties.

With a general 6-12 inches of snow as I estimated yesterday is now included in the watch area . Wherever banding of snow occurs especially over the Delmarva and Central and Southern NJ amounts over a foot.

Today will be mainly sunny and cold with near seasonal temperatures as high pressure is in control. Tonight will be mainly clear with increasing cloudiness overnight...temperatures will fall into the mid teens and lower 20's on a light Northerly flow. Friday will be cloudy and seasonably cold before the storm with temperatures running in the mid and upper 30's as winds become NE.

Forecast Discussion through The Week and into Next Week

Snow will overspread the area Friday night. Winds from the NE will increase and the snow will become heavy as times especially over the Delmarva and into central and Southern NJ overnight Saturday Morning. Temperatures will remain in the 20's and stay there through the snow storm on Saturday. The low will reach off the NC coast and intensify to off the Virginia Coast on Saturday afternoon and deepen slowly off the Virginia coast before pulling out to sea on Sunday Morning. As a result the entire forecast area will be in the snow. The snow fall amounts again will be wide reaching and the heaviest snow will likely fall over eastern MD ..North and Central DE and Coastal Central and Southern NJ from Monmouth South.. and yes for my Friends in Mercer the snow will be piling up for you in Ewing as well .

The latest guidance this morning is suggesting that a steady and impressive band area will be setting up offshore coastal and southern NJ spreading inland through Ocean down through New Castle and Kent County in DE . Snowfall will be sharply edging off across Southern CT and Extreme NW NJ on Saturday afternoon as the main focus is along the coast points south and West. Any change in the track will change the entire forecast amounts. That is why there are still no advisories or warnings for NW NJ however,,,a general 3-8 inch range will be widespread in these areas with higher amounts down through Central NJ. The lighter amounts will be seen over NW NJ and the Poconos but everyone will see accumulating snowfall on Saturday and for some in the lollipop areas... more than what you may want to shovel.

In addition to the deepening storm will be coastal flooding concerns and minor beach erosion along the SE NJ and DE coasts..however the big concern is for the blowing and drifting of the snow in the coastal communities as the low intensifies so will the NE winds to 25-30 mph with higher gusts..so if you reside along the immediate coast..that's you! These amounts are based on a compromise of this morning and last night's guidance from the GFS and the NAM/WRF. Though the Nam is cluster and farther North with the banding of heavier snow while the GFS is further south and less impressive.

Snow will begin to taper off from NW to Se Saturday night with a sharper cut off where Areas in NW NJ and the NE PA get out of the snow nearly all together while in the deformation band of the exiting storm pulls snow up along and offshore central and Southern NJ to the City and southern CT and LI Saturday night into Southern New England coastal communities Sunday Morning.

Clearing will commence on Sunday with cold temperatures over snow pack...Fair and cold weather will be with us through Tuesday with increasing clouds and the chance for light snow developing Tuesday night and Wednesday as a weak system moves east and a weak low pressure system pushes off the Mid Atlantic coast. Temperatures will run below seasonal levels this upcoming week.

I will have all the final details and graphs and maps up tonight.