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2011-04-18T21:24:00.000-04:00

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2010-05-12T08:01:00.001-04:00

2010-05-11T00:00:00.006-04:00

NCEP DISCUSSION MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

6-10 Day Outlooks(Click On Images to Enlarge)

8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts
8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

A Summer-Like Weekend With Some Showers And Thunderstorms To Welcome In May.New Details For Saturday Below Graphics!

2010-05-04T01:00:00.005-04:00

Intense ..Training Showers And Thunderstorms Over The Ohio Valley Will Propogate East Into The Poconos..NW NJ & The Hudson Valley/Ct Sunday Night &Monday..Updated Saturday May1,2010
As Advertised..the weekend of May 1,2010 is going to possibly be a record breaker...but we can also toss in severe as well when you look back toward the Mississippi ..Tennessee and Ohio Valley Regions....
Most records for Saturday(today will be broken as forecast highs get to 93 at Newark...90 in Central Park and other record breakers today will be Philadelphia..Trenton and the Delaware Areas... In Fact Delaware /Delmarva may rival our regions on Sunday..as we may all Fall Short of Records here. But not to be underdone is the fact that dew points will be rising .. through the 50's and into the 60's through the next 24-36 hours...in the NJ/NYC metro areas...

pre frontal trough ahead of a strong cold front will be developing on Sunday afternoon over the Appalachians in result to the deep and layered SW flow parallel to and ahead of the front. With multiple vort maxes rounding the base of a deep trough slowly migrating ast toward the Atlantic Coast...The unstable air will act as an enhancer for rapid lift and destabilization of the air as daytime heating pushes into the 80's and lower 90's Thisafternoon and again even more pronounced on Sunday afternoon.
The SPC has issued our area to be in a risk for damaging storms more-so Snday Afternoon and Evening...Primarily over the above aforementioned areas as NAM model shows this well.
A BROKEN BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING FROM PARTS OF IND/OH SSWWD
INTO MS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AND A MOIST AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
AS SUCH...THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A MORE
PERSISTENT AND COMPARABLY GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL GULF STATES WHERE TSTMS WILL
BE FUELED BY THE INFLUX OF HIGH THETA-E AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG AND SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

A SECONDARY CORRIDOR OF MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP
EWD FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES ACROSS NY/PA TOWARD
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HERE...THE
NEWD MIGRATION OF A 40+ KT SWLY LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAPID AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
INDICATE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES.
I will Be monitoring all of this with a greater in depth discussion and perhaps live coverage Overnight Tonight or very Early on Sunday ...Stay Tuned...

Friday April 30,2010 Update

A Summer-Like Weekend With Some Showers And Thunderstorms To Welcome In May

The general model consensus have been coming into better agreement over the past several runs but there are still some differences to account for in terms of sensible weather this weekend in the NJ NYC metro areas.. Better to take a blend of these and the ensemble means. The SPC has placed our region (mainly the interior west of the Hudson Valley in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms from Saturday Morning into Sunday Morning...this does not mean all the time.. I will explain that in a minute...To the right is the a risk of thunderstorms reaching severe levels throughout the entire forecast area through Monday morning....

The weekend is looking hot and mainly dry at this point with the exception of thunderstorms . High Pressure is building and expanding across the South and West of the forecast area. It will continue to do so through Early Sunday before it gets flattened a bit and shifts a bit further East. Pockets of vorticity and a SW Wind all levels will introduce the threat of showers and thunderstorms that will likely go severe across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys this weekend before translating NE and weakening as a strong surface low lifts out of the Arkletex area and heads for the Great Lakes in tandum with upper low over SE Canada pushing a cold front very slowly through Monday. This leads to increasing confidence of the risk of showers and thunderstorms on Monday. The cold front looks to come through faster on GFS and pushes the rain out to the south on Monday afternoon . Precipitable water will increase and any thundershower that does occur could contain stong winds ..heavy downpours and hail.
The thunderstorms look to weaken and transition into rain showers with upper level support shifting to the NE of the Area with time Monday Morning...Temperatures will get into the upper 70's Thisafternoon and into the mid and upper 80's approaching 90 in the Urban and interior areas West of the Hudson River and immediate coast Saturday. But the Westerly Wind may push the temperatures along the immediate coast into the lower 80's before any sea breeze takes over. More cloud cover on Sunday ahead of cold front and SW Wind will ensure readings in the upper 70's and low and mid 80's before the front and shower/thunderstorm activity propagates into the area....

Temperatures will continue above normal through next week as 2 frontal systems approach from attendant low pressure areas in Canada...However it is looking right now that the support for these will be lost to the NE of the area. Be mindful however that downstream blocking over Canada _NAO will be loosing it's grip and systems will remain progressive with less Polar influence and less polar air penetration from these fronts and Canadian lows as they propagate East.. Not totally buying into the colder pool on Friday over the area and will adjust temperatures to near guidance with seasonal readings back into the 60's...

I will be monitoring the severe weather throughout the weekend... Otherwise enjoy our First taste of Summer!

Wednesday April 28th,2010 Update

A Chilly Start Leads To Above Average End Of April/Beginning Of May..A Few Thundershowers?

It sure was cold Tuesday Morning.. During Monday night snow was falling in the White and Adirondack mountains... around a cold and spinning upper low over SE Canada. Temperatures over NJ were at freezing in a few spots and freeze warnings have been discontinued . The satellite shows clear sunny skies at dawn over the forecast area. But the light snow over the Mountains in NY and VT and Northern New England mean that upper and mid level temperatures are very cold. As the cyclonic flow continues we..will be under a strong and breezy NW Flow throughout today and tonight.... Despite Self Destruct sunshine as lapse rates are steep through the mid levels thisafternoon...we can expect clouds and a shower or two thisafternoon but precipitation should be light and brief... Most if not all of the energy will continue to shift to the NE away from the area.

A strong and building omega block(upper low Upper Mid West and Canadian Maritimes sandwiched in upper ridge to the West will continue a brisk NW flow through Thursday night..By the weekend.. this ridge axis will be along the entire US East Coast into Se Canada... Temperatures start off in the 55-60 range thisafternoon and build into the mid and upper 60's Thursday afternoon ..and April finishes on Friday with abundant sunshine and temperatures in the mid and upper 70's.... talk about a 24-36 hour change..but it is a change we LOVE!!!

High cloudiness will work it's way over the top of the ridge on Saturday as a warm air advection pattern on SW winds commence...Convection should remain well removed from the area...We will have to watch a cold front moving through the area Sunday night.. CMC shows some chances for a shower or thunderstorm ...model guidance is slim..the areas to watch is where the most unstable air(warmest temperatures) will be Sunday and that would be over the Delaware Valley/Delmarva area... High pressure returns for Monday into Monday night with slightly cooler temperatures but still above average in the 70's....

Another frontal system will approach the area Tuesday afternoon...it may also be accompanied by a few showers..otherwise near seasonable temperatures will continue into next Wednesday but will not be as warm as this weekend...

Previous Monday April 27,2010 Discussion

Over the past 48 hours from Saturday night to Monday Night..anywhere from 1.5 to 2.5inches of rainfall has fallen throughout the NJ/NYC metro areas... The thunderstorms have aided in many areas receiving damage reports from wind and hail..especially across the Southern NJ and Delmarva area...Fo the latest on these you can view that here...and here .

A cold front will be approaching this afternoon,.. Winds will turn to the NW and increase as cold air advection occurs behind the front and the pressure gradient tightens as upper air trough and surface front move off the Southern New England coast. Steep lapse rates and low level moisture means that a few showers will be evident with the front. Temperatures will fall and skies will begin clearing overnight... Winds however will remain up as the pressure gradient continues to tighten...Temperatures will remain in the low and mid 50's North and into the low and mid 60's Central and South thisafternoon. Skies that clear off tonight will again be faced with self destruct sunshine on Wednesday afternoon as another upper air disturbance about the upper trough axis moves through. Even colder air aloft behind this second max with reintroduce additional scattered to overcast skies on Wednesday afternoon and the strong NW flow will continue with readings some 10 degrees below average ..in the mid and upper 50's. However Central and Southern NJ will experience quite a bit of sunshine and cool temperatures as the NW flow continues. Skies will then become clear Wednesday night into Saturday morning with cool nights and a slow warming under a NW flow...

The upper closed low will remain over the SE Canadian Provinces into the early Part of the weekend as a Ridge Axis aloft builds to our West. This will keep us under a NW flow and improving conditions with warming temperatures into the period.. High pressure will build the ridge axis to the entire East coast into the weekend... Temperatures will begin to rise into the 70's on Friday and there could be some cloudiness as winds turn more to the SW as warm advection builds east from the Mid West on Saturday. That should allow the temperatures to approach 80 in NE and Urban NJ and the NYC metro areas away from the coastal waters on Saturday and Sunday.. Where sea breezes will keep temperatures in the lower and mid 70's. An absolutely opposite direction from this past weekend...

Low Pressure across Canada will continue East ..while surface low pressure and perhaps another outbreak of severe weather develops across the deep South toward the Western Ohio Valley on Sunday..this cold front will reach the eastern Coast and weaken on Monday... Out ahead of it will be some light rain showers and the possibility of a thundershower as mid level dew points will be running in the mid and upper teens Celsius...
Temperatures will return to cooler values mid next week as a Northern polar disturbance draws a cold front toward the area... More on this later tonight!

Special Weather Statement/Forecast Discussion Sunday April 25th,2010 Will Be Monitored Throughout The Evening (Full Details Below Graphics)

2010-04-25T13:46:00.004-04:00

Rough Weather will return late thisafternoon and evening especially from Ocean County NJ south to the Delmarva. A warm front on the current surface analysis was extending from the Ohio Valley to the Delmarva.. Winds were from the East /SE North of the front and temperatures were in the mid and upper 40's north to the upper 40's and 50's South Jersey this morning. Temperature dew points were also similar making for relatively saturated air after one bout of rain moved North this morning. Fog has become the dominant weather feature as the first short wave and surface low transitioned off the NJ Coast. What is more important here is that the temperatures have warmed into the mid 60's this morning across the Delmarva south of the front .Dew points have risen into the 60's as well.. this area will be a prime candidate for heavier rain and thunderstorms thisafternoon. The Storm Prediction center continues the following Convective outlook for the region through tonightOH/WV/PA/MD/DE/NJ...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE PRIMARY WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR PIT TO NEAR DCA...THEN EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD TODAY AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG HEATING TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL YIELD MODERATE AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES...WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS WILL BE MID AFTERNOON...BEGINNING FIRST NEAR THE LOW OVER OH AND DEVELOPING EASTWARD. HAIL APPEARS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER CELLS IN THIS AREA DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES NEAR THE WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN MD/NORTHERN VA AND POSSIBLY EASTWARD INTO DE/NJ THIS EVENING.

With that being said...notice the dry slot between the aforementioned low exiting the NJ coast this morning and the upper low over the Ohio Valley. This area will expand east throughout the afternoon and will allow the air to become highly unstable and will aid in pushing the threat for heavier thunderstorms through the region jyust along the lifting front. The WRF NAm guidance keeps a cool marine layer in place and keeps the frontal system to the South of the area through tonight. Another wave of low pressure is expected to ride along the front this evening . As a result...from Philadelphia east into Salem... Gloucester..Camden..Atlantic...Ocean..Cumberland..Cape May counties can expect another round of heavy rain and thunder . The rest of the forecast area will receive additional lighter rain as the disturbance moves along the front but the precipitation intensity should be lighter..but overall not much change in temperature or dew point is expected through Monday morning as the rain slowly exits the Coast and the NJ/NYC metro area...Additional rain will begin to fill back in on Monday afternoon and evening across the entire forecast area as the weakening and filling low moves towards the coast. We will remain in a NE flow in the cooler Marine layer across the region. This will keep temperatures and dew points pretty much uniform from where they are currently...

NW winds will begin to push dryer air into the region on Wednesday...however a second fort max will move through Wednesday night with additional shower activity.. Then high Pressure will build up from the South with a warming trend toward the weekend. Complete expanded details will be added to this throughout the day on the website only...

A Rainy Sunday..Then Showery Through Monday Night..Improving And Warming Conditions To End April & Begin May!(Details Below Graphics)

2010-04-24T05:00:00.001-04:00

Friday April 23,2010 Update

There is strong short term agreement in the modeling this morning for a Rainy Sunday and the rain could be particularly heavy along the Southern NJ to Central NJ Coastal Areas Sunday morning into the afternoon. A Few Thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either..This may lead to some street and highway flooding.. The culprit is a slow lifting storm system across the central Plains that will move off the East Coast by Tuesday. A frontal system that is south of the area today will retreat slowly back North as a Warm Front on Sunday. It will remain near or just south of our area. As strong arm Air Advection on Upper level Southerly flow overruns the boundary. this strong and slow lifting combined with an increasing low level Easterely flow will enhance the lifting along a strong baroclinically (thermal Driven front). This all spells out a modest to locally heavy rainfall over the Tri State area Saturday night with the main influence on Sunday Morning into the afternoon. Rainfall could be in the order of 1-1.5 inches over the aformention areas with highest amounts in convective showers. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with readings in the 50's. It will be a raw day..

Confidence in the forecast from Later Sunday into Early Tuesday lies in the movement of the upper low crossing the area and the upper trough axis moving off the East coast during this period...the entire trough will not exit the coast until Tuesday Night/Wednesday morning...The Surface low will slowly move into and offshore Southern New England through this period... A cold front will move through the area after one final low moves off the coast. There will again be a period of lighter rain across the area with this feature until the entire axis pushes offshore. By Wednesday afternoon the skies will break for increasing Sunshine and heights will begin to rise as a Ridge builds over the Southern and mid Atlantic into the weekend...Skies will then become mostly clear Thursday into Early Saturday with temperatures rising through the 60's and into the lower 70's on a returning SW flow. Increasing clouds ahead of another front will send temperatures into the 70's and possibly pushing 80 in the Delmarva area Sunday...The flow will begin to flatten as A large scale Ridge holds ground in the East with A more Zonal West to East upper air flow. Temperatures will again approach the mid and upper 70's on Monday May 3rd..before a series of weak fronts move through during the week...
I will get into this later as i am totally out of time this morning....

Thursday April 22, 2010 Update

Not much has changed in the overall theme into the weekend and the early Part of next week. Saturday night and Sunday are looking to be pretty wet. What will cause all of this to happen is a strom system currently over the 4 corners. As this low moves out into the Plains..strong gulf Moisture will be tapped as a strong SW Wind at all levels transports this unstable air into the Eastern US with time. A cold front sliding through Thursday will become the boundary in which areas of showers and thunderstorms will translate over as the front tries to push up into the are on Sunday. The proximity of the front and the strong warm air (thermal advection) at mid and upper levels will risde over a cooler Marine layer in place on Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds east over SE Canada and northern New England.

Temperatures and Winds will be Onshore Saturday night and Sunday north of the front and SE South and along the front. As disturbances race east in the baroclinic flow ..periods of rain will move through the area. Convection could become a concern for moderate periods of rainfall Sunday morning and again Sunday afternoon. However a general unsettled and raw period of weather is setting up for the entire forecast area during Sunday as surface low pressure develops over the Delmarva. This additional lifting will cause pockets of rain to become heavy over locations that will have to be monitored in real time as flood potential would exist in any of these areas...

Further Details Tonight.. Rest of Forecast Previous Discussions remain the same

Wednesday April 21,2010 Update

A Complex weather picture is still unfolding for the Weekend...till then ,however, clouds will increase as seen on satellite and surface and upper observations today..this short wave and trough over the Appalacians has the best dynamics and lift across the Delmarva and southern NJ..therefore the greatest threat for showers or a thundershower can be realized over these locations.. Temperatures will build into the 60's North and Central and coast ..however coastal locations and points further south as well may be shy of reaching 70..as a result of the clouds and precipitation exiting offshore tonight..temperatures will fall back into the 40's.

Sunshine will build back over the area on Thursday afternoon..after a cold front moves through in the morning...This front will usher in a brisk N Wind and temperatures on Thursday will remain in the 60's..a second cold front on lowering thickness will approach and reach the coast later Thursday.. AN increase in NW wind and chillier air will be the result with clear skies Thursday night and Sunshine but cooler weather to follow for Friday.

High pressure will build over the region on Friday and move offshore on Saturday. Saturday will be dry with a good amount of sunshine and temperatures in the mid 60's. The frontal boundary that passed Thursday night will be drapped from the Ohio Valley to the Central Mid Atlantic and will be a focal ground between the maritime polar airmass in place over us early in the period and the warmer more unstable air to it's South. It is connected with large closed upper low gradually shifting East into the central Plains during the weekend. The front will begin to return as a warm front.. Isentropic Lift..and thermal advection will increase over the area as onshore flow begins to keep the frontal system to our south into Early Sunday. However...Cloudiness will increase rapidly on Saturday evening and the chances for periods of rain will be evident on Sunday as a result of disturbances moving along the front draped over or to our South. The chances for periods of rain will be with us into the early week as well as High Pressure remains to our North feeding an onshore Easterly flow over the area and the frontal boundary remains stalled or nearly stationary to our south...

Temperatures will be quite cooler in the marine air and the difference of 5-10 degrees may be realized North and South of the frontal boundary. I will update during today

Forecast Discussion For Monday Through May 2nd 2010..Will Be Updated throughout Monday as Well

This upcoming Forecast period has a lot of Uncertainty when it comes to location of upper level and surface parameters and of course that will translate down to the weather you and I are under this week particularly later this week toward the weekend. I for one have had a Sunday of exhaustion as the allergies really kicked in and have kept my mind as cloudy as the sky was today. Hopefully that will not be the case through the week ahead as allergies this time of the year are simply the worst and most miserable feeling of the Body. With that said, I simply did not get areound to finishing this all up..and as it turns out get it out in the morning as promised. But none the less , A new week begins with sunshine eroded on a strong lapse rate that kept most of the sky cover this afternoon of the stratocumulus variety upto 800Mb.However the RUC forecast indicates one more spoke of this will lead to cloud cover lifting out of our area overnight into Southern New England as the atmosphere stabilizes and we loose the heating. MOS guidance was followed with a blend of NAM and GFS making temperatures tonight under gradual clearing . Enough cloudiness will be evident from Central LI and east overnight but inland thinning and clearing will gradually commence. Temperatures will run from the upper 30's into the lower 40's throughout.

High pressure will take control of our weather through the early part of the work week..as it builds over the Northern New England and Northern Mid Atlantic regions. Decreasing NW flow and down-sloping will create a mostly clear/sunny sky on Monday but there will be some cumulus during the afternoon. Temperatures will rebound back into the low and mid 60's ..which is near seasonable. Clear weather again on Monday night with lows in th upper 30's to lower 40's . Generally sunny on Tuesday with temperatures again in the mid and upper 60's can be expected with lighter winds and a spectacular feel to the air!

Wednesday Night a cold front will be approaching and the ridge axis will be shifted to the East. This will allow for weak warm air advection , however, these two systems shown on your left are out of phase and will contribute to an increase in cloud cover for the Delmarva as low pressure from the southern system heads offshore. There may be some light rain with this feature Wednesday night. A weak cold front attached to the Northern System will swing through on Thursday afternoon. Accompanied by light rain showers and a wind shift back into the NW Flow. Temperatures throughout the period will average in the 60's (with plenty of sunshine... down-sloping and compression to take average highs higher than forecast guidance slightly.

Positive PNA Ridge West ..trough East couplet is very well defined in the model guidance going forward this week. The flow becomes blocked up with pinching off of the ridge across the West into Canada. With time, this upper level low undercuts the ridging and displaces it into Canada. Meanwhile to the East of the Continental Divide...Convergence from the two streams and the still Negative NAO develops a strong jet structure at 250 MB. Very impressive lifting in the warm sector of the cyclone as it heads to the East will mean chances or rainfall increasing with thunderstorms across the Central and Southern plains into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley's over the weekend. This mid and upper level jet along side with the mid and surface frontal system depending on the location would mean the difference between low clouds..a raw NE/E Wind and drizzle over the NJ and NYC area. Right now I think we will remain in the Marine layer(Maritime Polar ) through Saturday. This is described next below!

Upper level confluence sets up between the eastward shifting Block (East Based NAO) on GFS and GFS Ensemble Spreads...leads to A Frontal system will be developing from the Mid West toward the Southern Atlantic. It will be a slow process of Warm Air advection across the area... However the idea presented by the GFS would have the low level flow from off the ocean and this marine influence would not only lead to cooler and damp conditions on Saturday... it would lead to periods of rain as well ..and the temperatures would fall back into the 50's once again as the result of the onshore flow and the precipitation. By Sunday though things get complicated. The warm front is now to our north and the general flow is SW aloft. A small window of clearing may be evident due to the Upstream low over the Great lakes and other disturbances in the Southern Branch over the SE and Atlantic...

Week 2 April 25th -May 2,2010

Next Sunday may start off dry..but it will quickly turn to cloudy as the aforementioned Low over the Great lakes heads into Se Canada..and the SW Flow increases ..Pulling up the moisture from the Atlantic.. Low pressure is expected to develop over the Mid Atlantic and the rainfall could be locally heavy Central and South Sunday evening before spreading over the Northern and Central Coastal regions and the NYC metro areas Sunday night ahead of the cold front... The upper low will push to the East off the new England Coast on Tuesday. Strong NW Winds will again commence in clearing and drying but the forecast from this point is leading down a road of a still blocked up pattern across Canada and the Ridge Axis across the Southern US. Another cold front and disturbance will be pushing along the baroclinic line through the Ohio valley and offshore the NJ Coast on Thursday the 29th...Again a NW flow prevails aloft with upper level low pressure over Southern Hudson's Bay shifting East..allowing for High pressure and A NW wind flow to rebuild over the forecast area May 1st... Another Warm front and clouds will increase on Sunday the 2nd....I will update further throughout this evening...

6-10 Day Outlooks(Click On Images to Enlarge)

8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts
8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

Problematic Forecast For later In The Week Ahead...Full Details Sunday Evening...A Bit Busy Today

2010-04-18T07:15:00.003-04:00

Thursday April 15, 2010 Update..

On This Tax Day in 2010..the Mid Atlantic and much of the East and Ohio and Tennessee Valley's Are Dry..And Pleasant.. But there are a couple of important details in what seems to be an easy forecast going forward. it simply isn't easy! High pressure is located from the southern US to the great Lakes. A upper level NW flow prevails. A weak upper low was located over The Canadian Maritimes.

Temperatures were in the 40's to low 50's in the NYC metro..winds were light and those colder spots in the mid and upper 30's across Agricultural Warren and Sussex Counties will rise freely as the sun comes up. In Fact everyone will rise well into the 60's and lower 70's thisafternoon. A weak frontal boundary (back door cold front) from the low over the Canadian Maritimes will drift South thisafternoon and pass right over th NJ..NYC and LI CT Line and remain stationary through Friday. It will left back North of the area Friday night as low pressure develops along the front. Meanwhile, a stronger front will aid in the moisture advection and lift as it approaches from a closed low over Ontario Saturday Morning.

With regard to the back door cold front..the weather will be determined by how far the front slips through and the overall cool onshore flow could make the difference from temperatures in the 5's in Northern and Urban Metro NJ into NYC and the Hudson Valley ..LI and CT on Friday ..verse a Temperature in the upper 60's to mid 70's from Central NJ south into Southern NJ and the Delmarva Peninsula... The amount of cloud cover will be an issue too. The sun will pop from central and Southern NJ South while we will likely be in the clouds North of there and a reflection of the stalled boundary and wind shift line.

Aside from that will be low pressure that develop over the NYC metro area on Friday Night and Saturday. Aided by an increasing mid level jet ..and naturally a baroclinic thermally induced surface with readings in the chilly side and Easterly Winds North of the Frontal Boundary and Moist and Unstable Warm air to the South.

A middle of the road consensus on placement of precipitation.. Showers and perhaps a period of moderate to locally heavier showers over the entire Northern NJ ..NYC and Li ..CT Metro..Eastern PA(Central ..North..along the Delaware) can be expected Friday Night into Early Saturday as the cold front comes through.There could be a few thunderstorms but they do not look to become severe at this point as we will be in a more stable marine layer..however..the conditional state might be enough to overcome this and the heavier rain chances and cooler air behind the front maybe enough to cause a few thunderstorms in The Hudson valley in to CT on Saturday Morning.

Unsettled weather will follow through the weekend as the upper low now offshore Southern New England moves slowly away.. High Pressure and generally dry weather will be in the forecast from Monday through Wednesday. With seasonal temperatures back into the 60's.

more details later

Tuesday April 13,2010 Update
High pressure was over the forecast area on Tuesday Morning. Skies may look like it is going to rain but the fact remains that the lower levels are very dry with dew points in the upper 20's to low and mid 30's. Showers are showing up on the models mainly over central and southern NJ and they will be very light as a strong jet induced disturbance races southeast in an upper level NW flow through the Delmarva area thisafternoon and then clearing will commence with broken to scattered clouds tonight and a sunny and warm day on tap for Wednesday.

High pressure will be in control of our weather through Thursday when it's axis will shift offshore..allowing another disturbance and upper level frontal system to develop and remain near the forecast area into the weekend. The placement of the boundary will have a significant impact on temperature and sky conditions throughout the area. Areas North of the boundary will be cool with readings in the 50's. While areas south of the frontal boundary may peak into the lower 70's. There is also the threat of showers that will spread east from low pressure over SE Canada .The best threat of these on the GFS model remain over Southern New England. However on Friday the winds will become a little more onshore and that may allow for a weak boundary of showers to develop over Southern CT and and the NYC vicinity before the low pressure center drifts east and offshore Southern New England and lifts slowly away during Sunday. The best chance of showers will come with the cold frontal passage on Saturday morning. Showers will work their way through the area Friday night into Saturday morning .The upper low that produces this trough of of anomalous warm/chilly air over the region will be lifting out early on Sunday.. With Building high pressure and a West/NW Wind...

Fair and dry weather with moderating temperatures can be expected from Sunday night into next Wednesday.
Update tonight

Sunday April 11,2010 Discussion To Be Updated Monday Afternoon

A pattern of Back Door Cold Fronts are not always a certainty in the Spring in the NE USA but more of a reality lately and again this week that is exactly what will be forecasted...The predominance of this upper trough(closing and opening vortex) with time over the Canadian Maritimes and the building Ridge of High pressure across the SE and the Mississippi valley extending into the upper Mid West and Great Lakes will be problematic on it's most Northern Rim this week.

The sensible weather forecasts can be described as benign and cooler from the Great Lakes East to New England. The NW flow at all levels is a result of this sandwiched upper anomalous pattern. Jet streaks extending from the SW side of the trough /ridge axis will allow for the infiltration of disturbances origination from off the pacific to slide up and over into the Canadian and USA Mid West border before dropping south through the Great Lakes and into the NE USA. This has been the large scale theme seen on much of the modeling consensus...It may also lay in contention with the above normal temperature forecasts from the CPC over the next 6-14 days. This is not to say the East will not warm up..There will be periods where this will happen as a result of the Canadian Trough shifting east in an East based NAO(Northern Atlantic Oscillation) configuration...This will then allow the Mississippi Valley ridge to shift east with time and warm the Northern Mid Atlantic. However. again there may be conflicting signals in the models here. Certainly the realization of a cooler Marine influence is somewhat being dampened out of the data that I am seeing and the trick in the upcoming days will be the influence of this and the verification of modeling trying to hammer down the temperature and sky cover forecast.

The NAM and GFS models have the pattern down for at least the next several days and then we will have to keep an eye on the trends from there. In the short term a weak cold front will be settling over the region thisafternoon through Tonight. It is being accompanied by some cloudiness as it sinks south and the radar returns show that some light rain or sprinkles will be about the region. Otherwise sunshine will predominate through cloudiness and temperatures will average in the mid and upper 60's North and Central NJ and the low and mid 70's near the coast . most of the jet and upper level dynamics will remain North of the region and satellite data suggest that clearing from Central and Southern NJ south is greater than NAM MOS Guidance. Will follow the GFS MAV guidance instead. Sunshine and mild weather will be with us through Monday and Monday night.. a break between upper jet cores moving SE through the area. High pressure will build in and bridge the gap with temperatures tonight generally running from the upper 30's in the coldest interior valleys to the mid and upper 40's elsewhere. Temperatures on Monday will average in the 65-70 range. I am discounting the GFS Surface data which does not seem to be in line with it's model graphics nor the current conditions via satellite images.

Basing the current upper atmospheric conditions on Tuesday on..Cloudiness will once again increase as another frontal system and jet streak approaches. We will be under the main jet influence so cloudiness should be scattered to broken then an overall increase in cloudiness with a chance for light rain showers or sprinkles as the jet streaks weaken over or south of the area. As a result there will likely be more cloudiness and shower possibilities central and South Tuesday afternoon and evening while the Northern areas including NYC and LI and Connecticut begin to dry with clearing during this time frame. High Pressure will then build in over the region from Wednesday into Thursday. Light winds and above average temperatures in the 60's will continue. Overnight lows will average in the 40's.

Another frontal system will be approaching from the NW on Friday and will bring again a noticeable chill back down into the 50's by the weekend. This is a bit more complicated as a warm front will be developing aloft in response to the trough ridge character. In the mean flow cloudiness will increase on Thursday and as weak impulses move along the front as it lifts North or South or neutrally stationary..depending on where the front lies and the upper dynamics will make for a confusing forecast for the entire region. While sky cover..wind direction may have overall impacts on temperatures and expected weather. Nailing down the specifics with sensible weather will be difficult this go around. I will await a few more model runs to nail the specifics. Overall however expect a variable sky with much cooler temperatures from Friday into the weekend... I will update this Monday!

Issued Sunday Night April 11,2010

To be completed Monday April 12th,2010 In it's Entirety...As Time Permits!

The teleconnections on Atmospheric conditions predominate in the medium range forecasts. Here i will take a look at the operational and ensemble forecasts for the Arctic Oscillation and the North American oscillation as well as the states of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation ..The Pacific Decadal Oscillation and The Pacific North American oscillation . All of these will show the impacts on the medium range forecast for sensible weather. I will of course hone in the weather and hazards impact for the Northern and Central Mid Atlantic.

The Arctic Oscillation has been primarily in the negative phase for awhile now.. In this phase Higher Pressure exits and warms the upper layers of the troposphere and lower stratosphere over the arctic regions leading to a net mean of lower pressures over the Mid Latitudes(That is us folks!) The AO index forecast from the GFS observed and forecasted output continues to show warming over these arctic regions into the middle end of the Month of April.

The NAO observed and GFS Forecasted continues to show a negative phase. But is this phase a Western or Eastern Negative NAO.. this will have the largest impact on the current weather forecasted ahead... Let's take a look! First off, there is somewhat of a significant correlation between the Arctic and the north Atlantic oscillations... With respect to higher Arctic warming over these regions suggest downstream negative blocking over SE Canada into Europe. Now not all seasons are the same but with respect here to the o and NAO..both negative values mean different things. The common anomaly is that as the AO is Negative the downstream effect over SE Canada into the NW Atlantic is one of a negative blocking character...allowing Low Pressure to linger longer and in doing so produces upper atmospheric lower pressure heights which leads to complications in the actual weather!

The image to your left is the positive phase of the NAO. In this mode of function(we are currently in a negative and forecasted continuance of negative mode) we would have a stronger and deeper Icelandic and Polar regime . This would allow milder and wet conditions in the Eastern US and cold and dry weather in Greenland and Europe. We have not had this this year or season and the lingering effects on a larger scale called El Nino may also be part and particle to this. I will explain that in a few minutes. To the right is the Negative phase of the NAO. That is where we have been and that is still on the above forecasted output. The difference ,however, would be west or east based ..as in all seasons this does have ramifications on sensible weather. The forecasted NAO is negative meaning that blocking and lower atmospheric heights continue into the SE Canadian Maritimes and the NE USA.

But what impact will a west or east based NAO have on our apparant weather. Now I will explain! A western based NAO would support for blocking and colder temperatures as the main trough axis would be over the Northeast extending down through the Mid Atlantic. On the other hand an east based NAO would have the vortex and trough axis more toward the Canadian Maritimes and off the NW Atlantic..that in turn would allow the Ridge axis to build further east allowing for in turn warmer weather and less cloud cover and a more Sw /West based wind flow at higher levels. The above left and right 12Z morning forecast for the NAo index both west and east based tells me that we are hedging toward the Negative NAO but the difference between the two composites remains unclear...if not neutral.... now that may mean that the forecasted mean indexes are not sure here ...so lets take a look at the EPO and PNA indexes to try to make some sense out of this.. You must be reeling right now not making much sense of any of this aren't you?

Well my vocation is to explain the weather not only in simple terms but to show you why when signals are confusing..more data is required!

The eastern Pacific Oscillation may hold more of the cards here...it's influence may overwhelm the AO and the NAO in a certain way...The predicted state of the Eastern Pacific Oscillation is negative...in this state there is a sub Alaskan/Aleutian Low Pressure that supports West Coast or Inter mountain ridging...hence the downstream trough couplet that the AO and NAO support along the east coast! The EPO is still forecasted in the position ...I will finish this up on Monday..ot of time from a very long Sunday here!.. Stay tuned !e Images To Enlarge)

Cooler And Dry For The Weekend..Pleasant And Seasonable Next Week(Friday Update Below Graphics)

2010-04-09T07:14:00.001-04:00

Friday April 9,2010 Update Discussion

Dry and seasonable weather will now be with us through the weekend with returning sunshine..lowering dew points and slightly below to slightly above seasonal temperatures through Sunday. A weak disturbance over SE Canada will drive in more cloudiness on Sunday and there may be a few light rain showers with this feature...otherwise sunshine and fair weather will return for the week ahead as Low pressure persists off the SE Canadian provinces and high pressure builds up from the Southern and middle Atlantic States through the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be running in a west to NW Flow near seasonal and with full sunshine Saturday will be running in the low and mid 60's. Temperatures with a SW wind on Sunday may approach 70 or in the low 70's before broken clouds and a weak disturbance corrects the wind back to the North and Northeast on Monday. This will allow the temperatures to cool back into the lower 60's once again.

No significant weather is then expected through Thursday as high pressure will be in control of the Mid Atlantic region. Chilly Nights with readings expected to dip into the upper 30's and mid 30's with light flow over the interior valleys with afternoon highs ranging back into the lower 60's with mid 50's along the North and Southern LI Sound and coastal Connecticut areas.

More tonight!

Wednesday Update April 7,2010

Very Warm Possibly Record breaking temperatures on Tap Thisafternoon...as Strong High Pressure is in control of our area. Temperature Dew points will sour into the mid and upper teens at 850MB with a SW Wind heading at all levels leading to surface temperatures well into the 80's across most of the Forecast area. the Land Sea Temperature differential would lead to some cooler sea breeze onshore shift again along the Southern Nj and Delmarva coast thisafternoon but that is after high temperatures may topple. Here are the highs at select locations today.
NEWARK.....85...1991 BRIDGEPORT....73...1997 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
CENTRAL PARK....89...1929
LAGUARDIA...........86...1991 KENNEDY......81...1991 ISLIP......81...1991 ACY. 84 IN 1991 PHL ... 90 IN 1929 ILG 87 IN 1929 ABE 88 IN 1929 TTN 88 IN 1929 GED 81 IN 1954 RDG 88 IN 1929 MPO 85 IN 1929

The above forecast chart from the NAM WRF model this morning is the forecast graphic for Friday morning when a strong cold front is forecast to move through. Showers and Thunderstorms have the potential to develop across Western NJ and NY and PA on Thursday afternoon before translating east overnight. Some of the thunderstorms have weak to moderate Cape values over Northern NJ and the NYC area leading to the potential for heavy rain in the storms Thursday night. Additionally strong low and mid level winds will mix down in the storms to produce the possibility of wind damage along with the heavy rain.

Precipitable water values will be approaching 1 inch and the heaviest rain fall along a line will move through the Southern PA and Philadelphia/Delmarva area right toward the NJ Coast from Monmouth South. These storms will be capable of very heavy rainfall and strong and damaging winds Thursday night into early Friday Morning. The cold front will exit as High Pressure reestablishes itself over the Southern and mid Atlantic Region. However We will be sandwiched in between the upper trough that swings through Saturday then located over the Canadian Maritimes Sunday and another disturbance racing south from the great Lakes. Cloudiness will decrease late Friday and Saturday will be a chilly day but near normal in temperatures after coming off such a mild and record breaking streak of Days. On Sunday Morning the aforementioned disturbance will be racing Southeast and cloudiness will increase as the disturbance moves east to the north of the area. Not expecting much if any precipitation then a decrease in cloud cover Sunday late into the evening and a continuation of pleasant weather on Monday with a northerly /NW flow and slowly recovering 500MB heights as high pressure continues to build over the area once again from the South and West.

The Latest ensemble and Operational GFS and ECMWF NAO Forecasted index is still pointing in a Negative Direction which means upstream blocking over SE Canada will have an influence of our weather pattern through mid month with the opportunity for modified polar air masses/ fronts and disturbances to move into the NE USA.

Though the trend will support Ridging in the East and in the means the averages of temperature will be forecasted above Normal..Other indexes and teleconnections would suggest otherwise. While I do not have all the data this morning nor the time to look at it i will be updating this with my further thoughts today if possible on the remainder of April.

Previous Discussion

Very Warm Temperatures will continue through Wednesday with readings well into the 70's and even lower 80's in the NYC metro areas both afternoons. A Cold front will lift back as a warm front Tuesday as High Pressure and a mild SW flow of air at all levels produced rising heights and very warm temperatures.

A disturbance along the warm front seen on water vapor and satellite channels will knock into the NW doors of the forecast area thismorning. Most guidance continues to hedge that this will clip our Northern Zones with some cloudiness in the morning as the front and disturbance lifts North. Skies will return to sunshine and temperatures will climb to near 80 Thisafternoon. As mentioned the weather will continue fair through Wednesday night. Latest NAM MOS has the entire area in the mid and upper 80's Wednesday afternoon and that would lead to some records being broken. GFS is a bit cooler but resembles pretty much the same upper 70's to mid 80's both afternoons.

A stronger cold front will approach the area on Thursday and pass offshore Thursday Night. With increasing clouds and breezy SW winds temperatures will again climb into the 70's but be a bit cooler than Wednesday .With clouds and the onset of showers and thunderstorms developing Thursday late into the overnight ..with clearing and chilly weather to follow for the rest of Friday and Saturday as large upper trough covers the SE and NE USA. In fact we will go from positive 15 degree 850 MB dew points through Wednesday..to below 0 dew points on Saturday..that will translate to roughly a 20 degree drop in temperatures on Friday from Wednesday with readings returning into the 50's. Saturday will be chilly with again temperatures holding in the low and mid 50's. Saturday and Sunday will be Mostly Sunny and cooler days. On Sunday afternoon into Snday Night another disturbance will race toward The Hudson Valley into Connecticut...It will be accompanied by clouds and the threat of a shower mainly North of the region.

As the trough axis pushes offshore it will get blocked over the Canadian Maritimes into the Atlantic while High pressure reestablishes itself over the Mid Atlantic to The Great Lakes. This will keep us in a upper level NW flow and plenty of sunshine with near seasonable temperatures.
More tonight!

6-10 Day Outlooks(Click On The Images To Enlarge)

8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts
8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)

WarmAnd Fair Weather Into Next Week..Friday Update Below Graphics..A Threat of Heavier Showers Next Thursday Followed by Cooler Weekend(Details Below)

2010-04-02T06:45:00.008-04:00

Fine weather with receding rivers is the forecast through the Holiday Weekend. High Pressure will remain in control of our Weather into Early next week. A weak and nearly dry cold frontal passage will move through the area on Sunday morning.. accompanied by cloudiness but little or no rainfall... Temperature will be cooler along the immediate coast as a bay and sea breeze develop limiting the temperatures into the middle 60's .. However away from the immediate coast ...temperatures will sour into the mid 70's thisafternoon and again on Saturday and temperatures with a NW heading on Sunday everywhere including the coast will shut off the bay and sea breezes and all temperatures Sunday afternoon for Easter will be in the low and mid 70's including the coast.

Another frontal system will approach and stall nearby or over us during Monday Night and Tuesday as the flow becomes parallel with the front aloft. High Pressure will remain over the mid Atlantic and SE States providing fair and very warm temperatures continuing... A stronger cold front and attendant low pressure in Se Canada will approach by Thursday.. The GFS is faster than some of the modeling and has been noted to have speedier systems through the area. Regardless high pressure Ridge Axis will be further offshore allowing for an increase in high and middle cloudiness and the chance for lighter rain moving in Wednesday night and then offshore.

The southern Part of the front develops low pressure along it and moves up into the forecast area with the chance for heavier rain showers and a period of heavy rain Thursday as the front and low pressure work it's way through the area and offshore. The potential for heavier downpours and thunder will have to be monitored in future model runs as this is still out of the scope. However the 850 MB temperatures and heights will come down substantially on Thursday and as a result the temperatures in the rain will also . In fact we will likely go from temperatures and SW flow on Wednesday in the mid and upper 70's with breezy Southwest flow to the West and NW with rapidly cooling temperatures back into the 50's and falling into the 40's Thursday Night and getting only into the upper 50's by Friday. With that kind of temperature drop there is sure to be some convection in the skies. I will monitor as the time gets closer. Cooler weather then follows for next weekend details..tonight!

Previous Discussion
Wednesday

A Chilly morning with Plenty of cloud cover still forecasted to remain over the Northern Mid Atlantic Today as our storm system pulls away off the
New England Coast. The past 30 days shows an extremely wet NJ and Mid Atlantic. For The period of this month we have had over 10 inches of rain in many locations. Yesterday records were announced for stations in the NJ and NYC area that broke records and some broke all time records for the Month of March.

Water continues to flow at a rapid rate from the Mahwah on The Ramapo river this Morning and is at flood stage.. it is flowing right down into the Pompton Lakes which is rising rapidly close to flood stage but still under as of this writing. it is 5 feet from flood stage there at 11.5 feet.Meanwhile flooding is ongoing throughout the Wanague and minor flooding continues for The Macopin..the Boonton..the Chatham and Pine Brook..Little Falls and Pompton...

Temperatures will rise quickly on Thursday from the chilly 40's and mid 50's to the mid 60's Thursday afternoon as heights rise and moderation continues as a ridge continues to build aloft over the Eastern USA. By Friday temperatures will be entering into the low 70's across interior sections on return Southerly flow that will be with us through Saturday.
A cold front in the Polar stream will be moving through on Sunday with a strong increase in cloudiness on Saturday and mild temperatures in the 60's to near 70. The front will come through with very little if any rain showers but the air will cool slightly on Easter Sunday as Westerly winds keep the atmosphere mixed and no true polar air will infiltrate the region. In fact Sunday afternoon will again see readings in the mid 60's. AN absolutely delightful Easter...

Another front and disturbance will pass on Monday but will have little effect on temperatures as it will quickly rise on West winds into the 60's once again. Temperatures on SW winds ahead of another warm front will push the thermometer back into the low 70's on Tuesday before it comes through ahead of the cold front on Wednesday. Accompanied by light showers. Winds will become breezy ahead of the front but temperatures will still manage to get into the 60's Wednesday afternoon. Much cooler weather back into the 50's is expected later next week as strong displacement of blocking in the North Atlantic a still negative NAO keeps our area sandwiched in between the trough off the North Atlantic and deep troughing in the Mid West with a strong Ridge extending from Florida up through the Great Lakes and Southern Canada. This will keep us on the Western Fringes and under a colder NW flow of air.
The Forecast for a continuation of blocking is showing up on the GFS output in the form of a Negative NAO while the ECMWF shows more of a ridge anomaly at the same time over the NE USA. This is a bit in contrast and likely the result of how much blocking is happening with the North Atlantic to allow the Polar stream to continue to push cold frontal passages over the area...also keeping a retrograding vortex in place over SE Canada to the Canadian Maritimes from the second week on in April. It will be interesting to find us in such a delema again as this would slow systems down and the development of at least another rainer episode could be again coming by the middle of the Month .. I will of course keep you all posted.

URGENT! NJ..PA..NY... MAJOR STORM FLOODING RAIN ONGOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY..MONDAY NIGHT UPDATE BELOW GRAPHICS

2010-03-30T12:01:00.008-04:00

Low Pressure is rapidly developing tonight off the Carolina Coast. Strong Moisture influx is spreading right up along the coast and offshore where th training rain is moving along a stalled frontal boundary right along the immediate coast and offshore the Mid Atlantic.This is leading to strong and gusty winds right along the NJ and NYC immediate coastline.

The Newtown Weather Storm tracker Doppler Strom total indicates over 1-2 with spikes over 3 inches of rain has fallen through Monday Evening at 10:30 PM. The heaviest rain was falling right over Coastal Monmouth into the NYC and Li area with the Hudson Valley into Connecticut being hot the hardest.

The heaviest axis of rain will fall over these locations now with lighter amounts to the West as a result of the aforementioned lifting and best frontogenetic forcing over these locations.

The 48 hour precipitation forecast from the Mid Atlantic Flood Forecast Center has shifted the heaviest rain over these locations and that seems to fit the guidance best tonight. Surface low pressure will move in tandem with increasing onshore winds along the immediate coast overnight..piling up the water and wave action along the battered south shore of Li and the Jersey shoreline as well. Once the upper low moved directly over the surface low the low will begin to weaken and the heaviest and most intense rainfall will begin to collapse as the storm occludes during Tuesday afternoon.

Taking a look at the flood guidance tonight... as of 8PM Monday night ..the Boonton NJ Reservoir on the Rockaway river is now over Flood stage of 5 feet with minor flooding occurring... the graphic to your right is the Passaic River Basin and there is considerable high water flow ongoing as of this writing and the image will be auto updated on the site to the right...

The Raritan image to your left auto updates as well and currently The millstone at Blackwells Mills is rising rapidly nearing flood stage with rapid water flow..Major flooding is forecast over the next 48 hours on the map to your right!

Previous Discussion From Monday Morning

The forecast output for more than 3 inches to nearing 4 inches of rainfall over the Northern and Central Mid Atlantic over the next 48-72 hours is a strong agreement of all modeling this morning and is an indication that flash flooding is almost a certainty this week along the major rivers of the Northern Mid Atlantic States.... Higher amounts of rainfall will be found in convective banding...

Current area of low pressure is on the move and will be affecting the area during the first half of the week and exit on April Fools Day and that is no joke. High and middle cloudiness has spread into the area this morning and the rain on radar and satellite is not far behind.
The first batch of heavy rain will come with the first low pressure area and frontal system through the region on Monday. Basin wide 1 inch accumulations are expected.

As the front moves offshore it is forecast to stall while an new area of low pressure develops over the Delmarva and produces very heavy rainfall throughout the Delmarva peninsula. A strong low level SE jet will increase the precipitable waters and heavy rainfall potential over the Southern and Central Nj regions during Monday Night and Tuesday morning as a nearly stalling system produces additional 1-1.5 inches of rainfall in this time frame combined with the initial rain of Monday already bring the rain totals to over 2-2.5 inches.

By Tuesday afternoon and evening the very heavy rain will be moving into Southern New England with a strong focus on Southern LI..NYC and Connecticut... The slow and near stalling of this upper level closed low will have great impacts on flash flooding throughout the entire forecast area...The GFS model ensembles are hitting the QPF hard and with strong omega and strong low level inflow..precipitation will come down hard and fast..

The rest of the medium term will be dealing with the consequences of the flooding and the weather will naturally be taking a break as we turn the corner in April First and just before the big Holiday's Weekend and week off ahead for some from school recess... By the weekend.. High pressure will build over the Eastern USA with moderation in temperature and fair sky conditions.. It will sorely be needed to deal with the ongoing cleanup of what may be another major flood in less then 2 weeks across the northern NJ area...

As much of the region drys out and warms up...with temperatures in the 60's and lower 70's ...cloudiness will once again be on the increase on Easter Sunday as SW Winds around the return flow from the ridge axis moving off the Mid Atlantic will allow for a another day of above average temperatures into the 70's and approaching 80 in a few spots over the Delmarva... only being accompanied by a weak Northern Stream Cold Front that will have little moisture to work with.

Winds will then become more Southerly in Direction as we approach mid week after Easter with a continuation of above normal temperatures . Several disturbances approaching from the West and South will increase the cloud cover with a warm front on Wednesday..then later on Saturday April 9th will feature a Northern Stream cold front that will come through and knock down the temperatures and be accompanied by rain showers. From there on will be another Northern Stream cold front on Monday the 13th with additional light rain and cooler temperatures
back to seasonal... More to come during today.

8-14 Day ECMWF/GFS Ensembles Plus 14 Day GFS NAO and AO Forecasts
8-14 Day Weather Outlook Window Graphics(click on images to enlarge)